[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N38W,
24N50W, reaching 22N70W. The sea heights are ranging from
10 feet to 15 feet from 14N northward between 30W and 60W.
The comparatively highest sea heights are reaching 21 feet
and 22 feet from 31N to 32N between 42W and 45W. Everything
is being generated by a complex low pressure center that is
to the north of the discussion area. These conditions will
continue through Sunday, while drifting eastward through
the central and eastern sections of the Atlantic Ocean.

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between high pressure that is to the north
of the area, and relatively lower surface pressure that is
in Colombia, will support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force
tonight off the coast of Colombia. The sea heights will build
to the range from 11 feet to 12 feet, with the fastest wind
speeds. Fresh to strong trade winds will be in the south
central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. These winds will expand
northward into the north central basin today.

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front is
forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The front will
reach near Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche
on Friday evening, before stalling and weakening from Friday
night into early Saturday. Near gale-force S winds and rough
seas will precede the front in the northern Gulf, from tonight
through Friday morning. Wind gusts are expected to reach
near gale-force during the same time period. Fresh to strong
NW winds are expected in the western Gulf of Mexico, behind
the cold front. The exception will be for minimal gale-force
winds offshore Tampico and Veracruz in Mexico on Friday.
The sea heights are forecast to build to 8 feet to 10 feet
offshore Veracruz.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details about these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N18W, to the Equator along
26W. The ITCZ continues to 01S30W, 02S34W, and to 02S42W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warning for GALE-FORCE winds is in effect for the Gulf
of Mexico. Please, read the Special Features section for
more details.

A surface ridge is along 24N/25N in the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. Expect generally moderate to fresh
southerly winds throughout the area. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, except for 8 feet to 9 feet
in the central sections.

Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected today, ahead of a
cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of
Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri
night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent
gusts to gale force, will precede the front across the north-
central Gulf tonight through Fri morning. Strong NW winds are
expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for
minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri.
Winds and seas should subside by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A warning for GALE-FORCE winds is in effect for the offshore
waters of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section
for more details.

Fresh to strong trade winds are in the south central Caribbean
Sea, in the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W, and in the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. An exception is gentle winds from Cuba to 17N
between 76W and 81W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet
to 10 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. An exception is the
range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the Gulf of Honduras, and the
range of 1 foot to 3 feet in the lee of Cuba, near the Cayman
Islands, and also between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area
and the Colombian diurnal low is supporting strong trades across
the central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force near the
coast of Colombia tonight. Strong to near-gale SE winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat morning, spreading
across the northwestern Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel
tonight through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell will impact
the northeastern Caribbean passages through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the ongoing significant swell event, and the cold
front that is supporting these marine conditions.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N38W,
24N50W, reaching 22N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is within
300 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 25N northward.

Expect fresh southerly winds north of 29N between 72W and the
coast of Florida. Seas are expected to reach 6 feet in this area.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 23N20W, just to the west
of the Canary Islands. The wind speeds for the remainder of the
basin are mainly moderate, with moderate seas south of 20N.
The sea heights have been ranging from 12 feet to 15 feet from
28N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights have been
ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet between 15W and 30W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 6 feet from 15W
eastward.

Rough seas generated by long-period northerly swell will persist
east of 65W through today. Surface ridging prevails across the
area, with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds. A cold front is
forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and track
eastward. It will bring strong S to SW winds east of Florida Fri
through Sat morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will
progress eastward this weekend, remaining north of 29N as an
east-west oriented surface ridge settles along 24/25N.

$$
mt/ah
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