[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front east of Bermuda will
progress eastward across the central Atlantic through Thu. Strong
to near-gale force westerly winds will accompany the front north
of 28N. Some of these winds will reach minimal gale force north
of 30N between 40W and 53W late this afternoon through early Thu
morning. Additional pulses of NW swell will follow the front.
Please see the paragraph below for details on wave heights.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Latest altimeter
satellite data indicates wave heights in excess of 12 ft mainly
north of 26N and east of 55W, reaching as high as 20 ft near
31N40W. The large waves are related in part to successive groups
of long-period NW swell associated with deep low pressure system
located well north of the area. Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are
reaching the tropical Atlantic, east of 55W. Expect seas in excess
of 12 ft to persist north of 26N east of 55W tonight and Thu. Seas
will subside slight thereafter, but another round of NW swell can
be expect Sat and Sun north of 28N E of 50W.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat.
These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on
Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and
Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 11 or 12
ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: a cold front is forecast to move off
the Texas coast Thu night. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
FL to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening before stalling and
weakening later Fri night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds
and rough seas will precede the front across the northern Gulf
Thu evening through Fri morning. Fresh to strong NW winds are
expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for
minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas
are forecast to build to 8 to 11 ft offshore Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the Atlantic swell event and the gale force winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06N11W and continues SW to near 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from
02N20W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from the Equator to 02N between 34W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters producing
moderate to fresh southerly winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft W
of 87W and 1 to 3 ft E of 87W. Areas of dense fog area still
noted over the Florida Big Bend within 60 nm of the coast. A
dense fog advisory is in effect for the waters E of Mexico Beach
to Suwanee River until noon EST. Some patches of low level
moisture with possible showers are moving through the Yucatan
Channel into the SE Gulf under a SE wind flow.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
through tonight. Moist southerly flow will continue to favor the
development of marine fog across portions of the northern Gulf
tonight into early Thu morning. SE to S winds will increase to
fresh to strong Thu, ahead of a cold front forecast to move off
the Texas coast Thu night. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details about the next cold front entering the
Gulf. Winds and seas should subside over the Gulf waters by Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please,
read the Special Features section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong trades over the south central Caribbean, and moderate to
fresh winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean and the
SE part of the basin, including the offshore waters of Venezuela E
of 70W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted over the western
Caribbean W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan
Channel. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to
9 ft over the south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere,
except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft in the lee of
Cuba, near the Cayman Islands and between Jamaica and eastern
Cuba.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are observed on satellite imagery moving across the basin
producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated
over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat.
These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on
Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and
Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will
persist in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. By Thu, these
winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over the
northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the
northeastern Caribbean and passages through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming gales and ongoing significant swell event.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters near 31N54W then
continues westward to 28N60W to beyond 31N75W. Recent
scatterometerdata indicate strong to near gale force winds on
either side of the front N of 29N while an altimeter pass shows
seas of 12 to 15 ft just ahead of the front and N of 28N. A broken
band of clouds with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
is associated with the front. A second cold front is analyzed over
the Atlantic and runs from 31N33W to 26N40W to 23N50W. Gentle to
moderate winds are related to the front. An altimeter pass reveals
seas of 14 to 23 ft in the wake of the front with the highest
seas near 31N43W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure located W of the
Canary Islands near 27N21W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
along the southern periphery of the ridge. Long period NW swell
continues to dominate most of the Atlantic waters E of 55W with
seas in excess of 12 ft mainly north of 26N between 35W and 55W.
Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas generated by long-period
northerly swell will persist east of 63W through Thu. A cold
front extending from 31N54W to 29N64W to 30N73W will keep
progressing eastward across the Atlantic waters through this
afternoon, sustaining strong to near-gale westerly winds north of
28N and east of 63W through today. Looking ahead, another cold
front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and
track eastward. It will bring S to SW winds at strong to near-gale
force east of northern Florida, moderate to fresh across northwest
Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas Fri through Sat morning.
Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected
north of 29N this weekend.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net