[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING
for the AGADIR Offshore Zone, from 30/1500 UTC to 01/0000 UTC.
N to NE winds will reach Force 8 near Cape Ghir, with severe
gusts. Seas are 8-11 ft, and may peak to 12 ft this evening and
early tonight. For more information, please see the latest High
Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31.5W from
02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt, due to fast 700 mb
winds. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between
28W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55.5W from 04N
over Suriname to 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 54W to 60W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W from 05N
over Colombia to 19N just south of Cuba. It is moving westward
around 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave in the
Caribbean at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough exits the coast of Mauritania 19N16W, and
continues to 08N30W then 08N43W where a brief segment of the ITCZ
begins and continues to 10N52W. In addition to convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 10N between 37W to 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1017 mb high pressure is located off the coast of Louisiana near
28N92W. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in all areas.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough
develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the
Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh to strong Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades are in the lee of the tropical wave along
76W, with 6-8 ft seas in the fastest winds. These 6-8 ft seas are
mainly in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
moderate with 3-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the far SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Mon
night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters
will expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to moderate
trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

1015 mb low pressure, the remnants of Cindy, is near 30N64W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 31N between 58W and
62W. S winds are moderate to fresh in this area as well. 1026 mb
high pressure is centered near 30N36W. A weak surface trough is
noted in the far W waters near the coast of Florida. Moderate
anticyclonic flow is analyzed across the Atlantic Basin, except
north of 22N and west of 28W, where NE winds are fresh to strong,
and in the far west waters, where winds are light to gentle. Seas
are 4-7 ft across the basin, peaking to 8 ft in the
aforementioned area of fresh to strong winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, A surface trough with weak low
pressure along it is located SSE of Bermuda. The trough and low
pressure will move north of 31N today. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net