[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was added to the 1800 UTC surface analysis based
on the Hovmoller Diagram that shows the westward propagation of
the wave axis, the Tropical Wave Diagnostic and satellite
imagery. Th wave axis is along 19W S of 18N. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted mainly ahead of the wave
from 06N to 12N between 19W and 23W.

A second tropical wave is along 45W/46W S of 14N moving W at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave
meets the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 40W and 51W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis along 66W S of
19N moving W at around 10 kt. The wave axis extends into central
Venezuela. This system is enhancing convection over the NE
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and also
over central Venezuela where clusters of moderate to isolated
strong convection are noted. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted
per scatterometer data behind the wave axis, with seas of 3 to 5
ft over the Caribbean, and seas of 5 to 7 ft just NE of the
Leeward Islands. Moisture associated with this wave will spread
across Hispaniola on Thu increasing the chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
13N17W and continues SW and W to near 09N26W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N26W to 08N40W, then resumes W of the tropical wave along
45W/46W from 07N47W to 06N52W. Aside for the convection
associated with the tropical waves, no significant convection is
noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf waters with a
center of 1015 mb located over the NE Gulf near 28N88W. Under the
influence of this system, mostly light to gentle winds prevail
with seas generally in the 1 to 3 ft range, except 3 to 4 ft over
the Bay of Campeche likely related with the thermal trough coming
off the Yucatan peninsula during the night hours. Scattered to
numerous shower and thunderstorms have developed over the Yucatan
Channel and parts of the Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and
light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and is
generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
the NE Caribbean and regional waters. Please see the Tropical
Waves section for more information.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present across most
of Central America, Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Satellite
derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trades
within about 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, and moderate to
fresh E to SE winds N of the islands located near the coast of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 1
to 2 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds tonight into Sun night.
Fresh to strong winds will develop over the south-central waters
Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere during
the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a surface trough,
is noted a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Upper-
level winds are marginally conducive for some slow development of
this system during the next few days while it moves generally
northward at 5 to 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

A large are of showers and thunderstorms extends from the NE
Caribbean toward the NE covering mostly the waters from 17N to
25N between 59W and 65W. This convective activity is ahead of an
upper-level trough with axis roughly along 70W/71W. This feature
crosses Hispaniola and extends across the central Caribbean.
Upper diffluent ahead of this trough is helping to sustain this
convection. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N60W to 23N65W.
The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging across the
central Atlantic and the surface trough supports moderate to
fresh E to SE winds SE of the trough and mainly N of 23N between
50W and 62W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere across
the Atlantic, with the exception of light and variable winds N
of 20N E of 40W where the pressure gradient has slaked due to the
presence of a 1018 mb low pressure located near 32N33W.

For the forecast, the surface trough located SSE of Bermuda will
move northward with the possibility of low pressure developing
along the trough. Winds will strengthen in the vicinity of the
trough tonight before moving north of the area Fri. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to
gentle winds elsewhere.

$$
GR
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