[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with
axis extending along 28W from 05N-14N. The wave is moving W at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near 08N,
where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

An active and fast-moving tropical wave extends its axis along
53W, from 15N southward, moving W at about 20 to 25 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N
between 47W and 61W. Moisture associated with this system is
expected to move across the Windward Islands tonight, increasing
the likelihood of rain. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh
to strong winds behind the wave axis N of 13N with seas to 8 ft.

A tropical wave, previously associated with the remnant low of
Bret extends its axis along 84W, from 20N southward, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over Nicaragua, Honduras, and regional waters.
The axis of the wave also crosses eastern Costa Rica. Moderate to
fresh SE winds on the E side of the wave, with gentle to moderate
NE winds on the west side of this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W and continues westward to 08N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N35W to 10N50W to 09N61W. Aside for the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 13N E of 42W to the coast of
west Africa.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure, with a 1017 mb center near 26N92W dominates
the weather conditions across the Gulf waters supporting gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. A surface
trough is moving westward across the Bay of Campeche and extends
from 23N95W to 19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted W of
the trough mainly over the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place into late
week. Fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan
peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each evening
and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is affecting Central America while another
tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Please see
Tropical Waves section for more details.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the southwest Caribbean
affecting mainly the waters S of 15N between 73W and 81W. Outside
of the tropical wave over Central America, recent scatterometer
data indicate moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean
with seas of 4 to 6 ft, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 84W will continue
moving into Central America and eventually into the Eastern
Pacific tonight. Showers and thunderstorms in the far SW basin and
in the Gulf of Honduras will gradually diminish into Tue. The
next tropical wave will pass over the Lesser Antilles and westward
into the Caribbean Sea on Tue. Winds and seas in adjacent
Atlantic waters will increase some after the wave passes. Looking
ahead, strong winds and rough seas are likely over the eastern and
central Caribbean Thu night into Fri night after the tropical
wave moves through the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N77W to south Florida. An area of
showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough affecting mainly
the northwest Bahamas and parts of the Straits of Florida including
the Florida Keys. This convective activity is ahead of an mid to
upper level trough over the far western Atlantic. Farther east,
the remnants of former Tropical Storm Cindy are analyzed as a
surface trough that extend from 25N62W to 21N63W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails E of the trough from 21N-30N between
53W-62W. Fresh to strong SE winds covers the waters from 20N to 25N
between 55W and 62W. In addition, satellite imagery show a swirl
of low clouds along the trough axis center near 24N64W. While
strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent redevelopment of
this system over the next couple of days, environmental conditions
could then become a little more favorable for some gradual
redevelopment during the latter part of this week. This system is
forecast to move generally northward into the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, passing near Bermuda on Thursday. To the E, a
surface trough, reflection of an upper-level low runs from 29N38W
to 25N34W. Some shower activity is noted in the vicinity of the
trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, with a main center of 1028
mb located near 37N44W. Outside of the area associated with the
remnants of Cindy, this weather pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 35W, with 6
to 8 ft seas, and moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the winds related to the remnants
of Cindy will gradually weaken as it moves N by late week. Seas
associated with the remnants will also gradually decay, but likely
remain above 8 ft through Tue. Elsewhere, gentle SW winds off
northeast Florida will increase through Tue night ahead of a
trough over the southeast U.S.

$$
ERA
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