[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 252039
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

This afternoon, we have had a wealth of in-situ observations, both
from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft sampling Cindy, in
addition to a NOAA buoy that very recently was in the center of the
tropical storm. The aircraft observations indicate that Cindy still
has strong winds in its northeastern quadrant, but well removed from
the center and more related to transient convection. Both the plane
and the surface buoy indicate that the minimum pressure with Cindy
continues to increase, now near 1010 mb. The wind field on the
western side of the storm is also quite diffuse and is barely closed
given the light west winds observed on the south side by the
aircraft. Satellite intensity estimates continue to drop from both
TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity will remain 40 kt for this
advisory, out of respect for the higher flight-level winds.

Cindy has continued to move northwestward this afternoon, with the
latest estimated motion at 315/14 kt. The track forecast is
essentially unchanged from earlier today, as Cindy should continue
this northwestward track until it opens up into a trough in 24 to 36
hours. The NHC track lies very close to the various consensus aids.
This track forecast does not preclude the possibility of some
possible center nudges poleward due to the enhanced convection
ongoing in the northeast quadrant of the storm.

Cindy might be having one last convective gasp this afternoon, as
continued strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level
air are likely to lead to its demise. The vast majority of the
guidance now suggests the storm will soon open up into a trough
axis. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to indicate
dissipation after 24 hours, though this could occur sooner than
indicated here. There remains a possibility of regeneration later
this week near or to the north of Bermuda, but enough uncertainty
exists to not show this scenario in the current official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 21.9N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 23.2N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 24.8N  61.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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