[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 242045
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

The satellite presentation of Cindy this afternoon is fairly
unimpressive, with an exposed low-level swirl ejecting quickly
northwestward away from the pulsing convection present to its east.
Earlier, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission measured
Cindy's surface pressure, which was higher than estimated earlier,
at 1005 mb. However, the fast motion of the storm this afternoon has
still enabled strong winds to exist on the east side of the
circulation. The aircraft found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 59
kt, with the highest SFMR obs up to 50 kt. Thus, despite the rather
disheveled appearance , Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm for
this advisory. However, most of these winds are concentrated in the
northeast quadrant, with much lighter winds on its western side.

Aircraft fixes indicate that the tropical storm is still moving
quickly to the northwest, estimated at 310/18 kt. This quick
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 12-18 h,
though the track model guidance suggest the system should slow down
its forward motion thereafter. There continues to be large
divergence in the track guidance after about 24 hours, with the GFS,
HWRF, and HAFS guidance on the east side of the track envelope
(related to some degree of center reformation or relocation to the
northeast), with the CMC, ECMWF, & COAMPS-TC on the west side. The
NHC track forecast ops to continue taking a blend between the ECMWF
and TVCA consensus aid. Cindy should pass well northeast of the
northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday.

Even though Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm, this is as much of
a reflection of its quick forward motion than its current
organization, which has gone downhill this afternoon, supported by
the higher central pressure measured by aircraft observations.
Vertical wind shear is forecast to quickly increase to around 30-kt
over the next day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry
mid-level environment should result in weakening over the next
several days. Given the fragile nature of Cindy's circulation
currently, it seems likely the tropical cyclone will succumb to the
unfavorable environment. In fact, the latest ECMWF forecast shows
the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough as soon as in the next
48 hours. While the latest NHC intensity forecast does not show
dissipation quite that soon, it has been moved up to 72-h in best
agreement with the latest ECMWF and CMC solutions. It should be
noted, however, that there remains a significant portion of the
guidance that, even if Cindy dissipates, could attempt to
regenerate by the end of the forecast period as the shear lowers.
However, that is not reflected in the NHC intensity forecast at this
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 17.8N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.7N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.8N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 23.9N  60.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 25.5N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 27.0N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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