[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 232036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Cindy has
become more anemic, with the earlier banding structure degrading
into more scattered convection distributed around the low-level
circulation. It is possible some nearby dry air has been entrained
into the circulation, limiting more organized convection this
afternoon. The lackluster convective structure was also observed on
a recent 1852 UTC SSMIS pass. Dvorak T-numbers have either held
steady or decreased slightly, and the initial intensity will remain
45 kt for this advisory.

While the shear has not yet increased over Cindy and sea surface
temperatures underneath remain sufficently warm, the apparent
dry-air entrainment might be a limiting factor on more robust
intensification in the short term. After 24 h, Cindy is forecast to
encounter higher shear from the northwest which should induce a
weakening trend. The intensity guidance is a bit lower than the
previous cycle, and the NHC forecast also shows a slightly lower
peak intensity than earlier. Under continued shear from an
upper-level trough, Cindy is still forecast to become a remnant low
and dissipate by the end of the forecast period. However, one thing
worth mentioning beyond the forecast period is that some of the
guidance (most notably the GFS) shows the possibility of Cindy
regenerating near Bermuda, though that is beyond the scope of the
current forecast.

Cindy continues to move to the west-northwest, perhaps a bit more
poleward than before at 295/14 kt. Not much has changed with the
forecast track philosophy with a similar west-northwestward motion
expected to continue as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its east-northeast. As the system weakens, it is more
likely to be steered by the low-level ridging which should maintain
this motion through the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance made another small shift to the northeast, and the latest
NHC track forecast was similarly adjusted a bit in that direction,
but remains notably on the south side of the guidance envelope,
fairly close to the latest ECMWF forecast. This track forecast
remains well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 13.3N  49.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N  51.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.3N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 18.1N  56.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 19.9N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 21.6N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 23.1N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 24.8N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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