[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is centered over the eastern Caribbean near
13.4N 62.9W at 23/0900 UTC or 100 nm W of St. Vincent moving W at
16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. The wave
heights have subsided somewhat as Bret has moved across the
northern Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands. The
highest seas surround Martinique and Saint Vincent, where 12 to 16
ft wave heights are likely. A large area of 8 to 12 ft seas
persist over Atlantic waters west of 57W, and over the eastern
Caribbean west of 64W. Convection has diminished from earlier as
Bret moves into the eastern Caribbean, but scattered showers and
thunderstorms persist within 90 nm of the center of Bret. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered over the tropical Atlantic near
12.1N 46.9W at 23/0900 UTC or 860 nm E of the Lesser Antilles,
moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are active within 90
nm of the center. Wave heights are 8 to 11 ft within 120 nm of the
center. Cindy is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as
it moves to the northeast of the Leeward Islands through Sun.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W, from 03N to 14N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
05N to 08N between 22W and 26W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Jamaica to eastern
Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident where the tropical wave interacts
with the monsoon trough, specifically south of 11N between 75W and
80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau from 12N16W to 08N25W to 09N40W. In addition the
convection already discussed in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N between
12W and 16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving east across the
Florida Big Bend area in the northeast Gulf, associated with an
upper trough that extends from the Ohio Valley into the eastern
Gulf. A surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to the upper
Texas coast. Farther south, a trough is moving across the far
southwest Gulf from the western coast of the Yucatan peninsula to
the coast of Veracruz. This pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh winds across the southwest Gulf, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.
Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure extending from southwest
Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through early
next week, maintaining mostly gentle to moderate breezes and
slight seas over the Gulf. The exception will be fresh winds will
pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night from tonight
through Sun night as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing
some hazy conditions over sections of the western Gulf south of
25N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy.

A sharp mid to upper trough extends across the eastern Gulf along
roughly 65W. Shear and dry air aloft associated with the trough
is impacting Tropical Storm Bret, currently moving into the
eastern Caribbean. An altimeter satellite pass from 0230 UTC and
recent reports from Buoy 42060 over the northeast Caribbean
indicate seas are building in excess of 8 ft. An earlier
scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean, where a concurrent altimeter
satellite pass indicated seas approaching 8 ft off Colombia. A
more recent scatterometer pass from 0320 UTC indicated fresh to
strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras, where combined
seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Trade wind convergence was
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, Bret will continue to move westward before
weakening and dissipating over the central Caribbean by late Sat.
Trade wind flow and wave heights will diminish across the basin
early in the week, but then increase over the south-central
Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy.

A surface ridge extends from high pressure northeast of Bermuda to
the central Bahamas, supporting fresh to strong winds funneling
along the northern coast of Hispaniola, with 5 to 7 ft seas. It is
also supporting moderate to fresh SW winds off the coast of
northeast Florida. E to SE swell associated with T.S. Bret is
maintaining combined seas of 6 to 8 ft north of the Leeward
Islands. Farther east, moderate NE winds are evident north of a
cold front reaching from 31N36W to 28N50W, with a surface ridge
farther east over the eastern Atlantic. Wave heights are
generally 4 to 6 ft north of 20N, and 5 to 7 ft south of 20N,
except higher near T.S. Bret and T.S. Cindy.

For the forecast west of 55W, T. S. Cindy will move to the
northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.4N 59.0W by Sun
afternoon, and then reach 20.9N 61.4W Mon morning. Cindy will
likely weaken as it moves farther to the north of the Leeward
Islands through early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from
the north- central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift
northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy.


$$
Christensen
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