[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 222035
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit a shear pattern on
satellite imagery with the center located to the east of the main
area of deep convection.  Banding features are not very well
defined at this time.  Although the low-level center is perhaps a
little better defined than it was earlier today, there has been
little change to the overall convective organization.  The current
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is the average
of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone will remain over warm waters and within a marginally
moist atmosphere for the next several days.  This should allow at
least gradual strengthening during the next couple of days.  The
main factor for the longer-term future intensity of the system is
likely to be a large upper-level trough that extends from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Atlantic for
several hundred miles.  This feature is predicted by the global
models to persist through the 72 hour time frame.  Since the
tropical cyclone is expected to interact with this trough in 2-3
days, the associated increase in vertical shear will likely cause
some weakening.  By the end of the forecast period, when the system
nears subtropical latitudes, the shear may decrease.  However, it is
not yet clear that the cyclone will be able to make a comeback by
that time.

The depression continues on a west-northwesterly track with an
estimated motion of 285/12 kt.  There is not much change to the
track forecast reasoning.  For the next several days, the system
should continue on a generally west-northwestward, to nearly
northwestward, path along the periphery of a subtropical high
pressure area.  The official track forecast is very close to the
dynamical model consensus and is slightly to the west of the
previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 11.5N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 12.0N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 13.2N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.4N  50.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 16.0N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 17.6N  56.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 19.1N  58.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 21.6N  63.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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