[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is centered near 13.4N 58.9W at 22/1800 UTC
or 40 nm ENE of Barbados moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Recent satellite imagery indicate that
westerly wind shear has increased over Bret and most of the deep
convection is located over the eastern quadrant. Seas near the
center are around 23 ft and expected to gradually subside over the
next few days. Little change in strength is forecast today while
Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Gradual weakening is
anticipated over the next couple of days, and the system is
likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday
night or early Sunday. The center of Bret is expected to move
across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and
Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Four is centered near 11.3N 42.9W at 22/1500
UTC or 795 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving W at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Easterly shear is
maintaining scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
within 240 nm west of the exposed low level center. Combined seas
are estimated to be around 10 ft. Seas are forecast to build to
near 11 ft by tonight. Some strengthening is forecast during the
few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm soon. A weakening trend is forecast to commence over the
weekend. The depression is expected to remain well east of the
northern Leeward Islands through early next week. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis was along 22W, south of
14N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted south of 10N and between 20W and 25W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has been relocated along 77W based
on RAOBs from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and Kingston
Jamaica, and wave diagnostics data. The wave axis is south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated
with this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 09N32W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 10N
and east of 20W. Similar convection is noted south of 08N and
between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast
and divergence aloft result in scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection north of 27N and east of 93W. Elsewhere, weak
high pressure prevails. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
prevalent across the basin. However, stronger winds are likely in
association with the strong convection previously mentioned. Seas
of 3-5 ft are found over most of the Gulf except 1-3 ft in the
southeast waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure extends from
southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little
through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the
Yucatan peninsula each night through Fri night as a trough
develops each evening and moves offshore. A nearly stationary
front along the northeast Gulf coast will continue to bring
scattered thunderstorms to those waters through Fri. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to result in haze over
sections of the far western Gulf through at least the next couple
of days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Storm Bret approaching the Lesser Antilles.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen in the
western Caribbean Sea, south of 20N, in association to upper
level divergence and abundant tropical moisture. Similar
convection is also occurring off the northern Panamanian coast,
mainly within 90 nm. In the remainder of the Caribbean, a drier
environment is suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are evident
across the basin, especially south of 19N. This is confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations. Seas
of 6-9 ft are present in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret near 13.8N 57.7W 999 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75
kt. Bret will maintain intensity as it moves to near 14.0N 60.0W
this evening, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 14.3N
63.2W Fri morning, to near 14.5N 66.7W Fri evening with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 14.6N 70.3W Sat
morning, to near 14.5N 74.0W Sat evening with maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and dissipate Sun morning. The remnant
trough will continue westward to the western Caribbean into early
next week accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds. Farther
east, Tropical Depression Four near 11.3N 42.9W 1007 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Tropical Depression Four will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 11.8N 44.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt, move to near 12.8N 47.2W Fri morning and continue to
strengthen as it moves to near 14.0N 49.6W Fri evening with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, then to near 15.5N
52.2W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60
kt, reach to near 17.1N 54.8W Sat evening, and begin to weaken
as it reaches near 18.6N 57.4W Sun morning. Tropical Storm Four
will continue to weaken as it tracks well east of the northern
Leeward Islands through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Storm Bret and Tropical Depression Four.

Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough over
the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly west of 70W. In the rest of the SW Atlantic,
weak high pressure suppresses the formation of deep convection.
Moderate easterly trades are found south of 24N with seas 4-6 ft.
Similar southerly winds are present in the offshore waters of
northeast Florida. Seas in this area are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, west
of 55W, light winds and slight seas are prevalent.

In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a broad subtropical
ridge maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions despite a weak
cold front entering the region along 30N50W. Fresh northerly
winds and 4-6 ft seas are occurring south of 24N and east of 25W.
In the remainder of the basin outside of the influence of the
tropical cyclones mentioned, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast for waters west of 55W, Tropical Depression Four near
11.3N 42.9W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Tropical Depression Four will
strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.8N 44.7W this evening with
maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 12.8N
47.2W Fri morning and continue to strengthen as it moves to near
14.0N 49.6W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts
55 kt, and move to near 15.5N 52.2W Sat morning with maximum
sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Tropical Storm Four is forecast
to move to the west-northwest through Sat night and well east of
the northern Leeward Islands through early next week as it weakens
to a minimal tropical storm. Otherwise, high pressure extending
from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift
northward through early Sun ahead of tropical cyclone Four.

$$
KRV/SDR
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