[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 220855
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds
indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring
in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and
sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a
tropical depression.  The depression has a partially exposed
low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west.
The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of
subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt.  The
cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on
the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days.  After
that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards
a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands.  The model
guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast
lies near the model consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening
over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm in the next day or so.  Beyond 72 h, global models
agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and
weaken the cyclone.  The NHC intensity prediction starts out
conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most
similar to the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 10.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 11.3N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 12.0N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.1N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.5N  50.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.0N  52.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.6N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 20.9N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 23.3N  64.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net