[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 22/0600 UTC is near: 13.5N
55.8W, or about 465 km/251 nm to the east of Barbados. T.S. Bret
is moving W, or 280 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. The sea heights that are
reaching 12 feet or greater are within:
120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The
maximum sea heights are forecast to reach 22 feet. Tropical storm
force winds are within: 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 40 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. 50 knot wind speeds are within 30 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and
in the SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
Another website for information is: www.hurricanes.gov.

Invest Area (AL93): A 1009 mb low pressure center is near
10.5N40W. Strong winds are within 250 nm of the center in the N
quadrant. Fresh winds are within 500 nm of the center in the N
quadrant. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from
10N to 16N between 35W and 41W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The precipitation pattern continues to show signs of organization.
The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more
development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward from 10 mph to 15 mph, through the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean through the early part of the weekend.
The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours is high.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical was along 19W, from 14N southward,
moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 08N between
Africa and the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough. Scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to
11N between 26W and 30W, on either side of the monsoon trough, and
about 425 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 16N,
and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to
20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N, to 08N20W, and to 07N31W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from
60W eastward. Other areas of precipitation are listed already
near the 19W tropical wave.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida, into the west central Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front passes through SW Alabama, through southern
Louisiana, becoming a warm front in east Texas. The warm front
continues northwestward, beyond the Texas Panhandle.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 27N to 31N
between 90W and 99W. The precipitation covers parts of the NW Gulf
of Mexico, and inland areas of SW Louisiana, and parts of Texas.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers parts of the
NE Gulf of Mexico, and inland areas of Florida between 82W and
85W.

The sea heights are reaching: 1 foot in the Straits of Florida;
2 feet off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula; and from 3 feet
to 4 feet elsewhere. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds in the western Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere in the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas
coast will move little through early next week. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. A nearly stationary front
along the northeast Gulf coast will continue to bring scattered
thunderstorms to those waters through Thu. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will continue to result in haze over sections of
the far western Gulf through at least the next couple of days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Bret.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, that passes through the Yucatan Channel to Central
America. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an
inverted trough in the same areas. Precipitation: scattered strong
is within 120 nm of the coast of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere to the west of
the line that runs from 09N77W to 80W in Cuba. The 24-hour rainfall
total in inches, for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC, was:
0.45 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Strong E to NE winds are from 12N to 19N between 70W and 80W.
Some near gale-force winds are from 12N to 15N between 70W and
76W. Fresh E to NE winds are from 11N to 20N between 60W and 70W.
Some strong winds are from 13N to 19N between 60W and 67W.
Moderate winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh
SE winds are from 15N northward from 80W westward. Some strong SE
winds are from 17N to 19N within 90 nm of the coast in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from
6 feet to 9 feet from Jamaica and Hispaniola southward between 70W
and 81W. The comparatively highest sea heights are off the coast
of Colombia along 74W/75W. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet
to 5 feet, except for 2 feet to the east of Grenada. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Bret is near 13.5N 55.2W 1000 mb at 11 PM EDT,
moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to
65 kt. Bret will move to 13.7N 57.3W Thu morning, 14.0N 60.1W Thu
evening, and 14.3N 63.4W Fri morning. Bret will move into the
southeast Caribbean Fri, reaching 14.5N 67.0W Fri evening, 14.7N
70.5W Sat morning, and then dissipate Sat evening over the central
Caribbean. The remnant trough will continue westward to the
western Caribbean into early next week accompanied by fresh east
to southeast winds. Low pressure that is currently over the
eastern Atlantic may move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands
this weekend as a possible tropical cyclone. Farther west, fresh
to occasionally strong E to SE winds will persist in the Gulf of
Honduras will continue through late Sat, briefly pulsing to near
gale force Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Bret, and about Invest Area AL93.

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N17W, through 31N20W, to 28N23W 28N41W, to a 1022 mb
high pressure center that is near 31N63W. The surface ridge
continues from the 31N63W 1022 mb high pressure center, to the
Bahamas, and to the Straits of Florida. The sea heights are
ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet from 21N northward. The sea heights
are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet from the AL93 INVEST eastward.
Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the Atlantic Ocean to the
north of the line 26N70W 21N53W 19N38W, and elsewhere from 38W
eastward. The wind speeds and the sea heights that pertain to
T.S. BRET, and to the AL93 INVEST, are listed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section.

Broad high pressure ridging extending southwest across the area
will continue to control the weather regime during the rest of the
forecast period. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds offshore
NE Florida will diminish by early Fri. Elsewhere, the ridge will
maintain mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the
next several days, except for locally fresh offshore off
Hispaniola and off NE Florida. Low pressure that is currently over
the eastern Atlantic may move across the waters from 19N to 25N
east of 70W early next week as a possible tropical cyclone.

$$
mt/ec
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