[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 220238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Bret has changed little in intensity during the past few hours.
The aircraft reported a central pressure near 999-1000 mb with
maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt to the northeast of the
center, along with a maximum surface wind estimate of 56 kt from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer.  Based on these, the initial
intensity remains 55 kt.  Satellite imagery shows that Bret
continues to generate strong convection near and northeast of the
center.  However, it continues to be affected by northwesterly shear
that is undercutting the storm's outflow pattern.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours as
Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles.  After that time, the cyclone
will encounter increasing vertical wind shear due to an upper-level
trough over the eastern Caribbean.  This should cause steady to
rapid weakening, and Bret is now expected to degenerate into an
open trough between 60-72 hr in agreement with the global model
guidance.  The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance.

Bret continues to move westward, or 280/14 kt, under the influence
of low- to mid-level ridging to its north.  Some increase in
forward speed may occur over the Caribbean as Bret weakens.  There
has been little change in the track guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track with the center passing through the Lesser Antilles in about
24 hours.  Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have
average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of
strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the
Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the
island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique,
and Dominica, and there is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall,
strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning
area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St
Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional warnings are possible for
some islands in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 13.5N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.7N  57.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 14.0N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 14.3N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 14.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 14.7N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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