[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three is centered near 11.0N 40.3W at
19/1500 UTC or 1240 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving
W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N
between 37W and 44W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the E semicircle of
the depression center. On the forecast track, the system should
be approaching the Lesser Antilles late this week. Some
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to
become a hurricane in a few days. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands extends along 27W
from 03W to 15W, moving W at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 05N to
11N between 29W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 25W and 29W. Further
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form within the next few days while the system moves
westward at 8 to 13 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low
(30%) probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48
hours, and a medium (40%) probability over the next seven days.

A tropical wave is just E of French Guiana with axis near 50W,
from 02N to 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is occurring near this wave.

A tropical wave is moving inland Colombia with axis near 74W,
south of 13N. No significant convection is occurring near this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W to
08N27W to 10N39W to 07N46W. No ITCZ is currently present. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves and
Tropical Depression Three, scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 13N between 12W and 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between weak surface ridging extending
from the SW N Atlantic waters to the central gulf and low pressure
across the western basin is supporting moderate to fresh winds
return flow and seas of 2 to 5 ft. Smoke due to agriculture fires
over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from
the Yucatan Peninsula north and westward. Otherwise, mid to upper
level diffluent flow continue to support heavy showers and
scattered tstms along the coastal waters between Alabama and the
Florida Big Bend.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Straits of
Florida to the upper Texas coast will generally persist through
the week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough
develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail, locally fresh at times. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and
western Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Three, which is forecast to approach the NE
Caribbean Fri into Sat morning.

The gradient between a subtropical ridge associated with high
pressure centered E of Bermuda and lower pressure over the SW
Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 5-8 ft in
the SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate
convection is observed in the E Gulf of Honduras and along Central
America coastal waters to northern Panama. Smoke due to
agricultural fires over portions of Central America may be
reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
the central Caribbean through early Thu. Moderate to fresh E
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Tropical Depression
Three near 11.0N 40.3W 1009 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 18 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Three will strengthen
to a tropical storm near 11.2N 42.9W this evening, move to 11.7N
45.9W Tue morning, 12.2N 48.6W Tue evening, 12.8N 51.2W Wed
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.3N 53.9W Wed evening,
and 13.8N 56.3W Thu morning. Three will change little in intensity
as it moves to 14.9N 61.5W Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a Storm Warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential.

In the far western Atlantic, a diffluent pattern aloft and a
surface trough from 30N76W to the Treasure Coast of Florida is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 24N and W of
75W, including the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are within about 240 NM ahead of the trough. Otherwise high
pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near
32.5N47W. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow north of 20N, where seas are 3-6 ft. South of
20N, trade winds are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas, except
light to gentle winds S of 10N and W of 40W with 3-4 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge
SW through the central Bahamas to the SE Gulf of Mexico, and will
continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front off the
SE US coast will linger and gradually dissipate through the early
part of the week with locally fresh winds E of it tonight. Mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next
several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N
Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from the NW Bahamas
to around 70W through today. An area of low pressure, possible
tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical
Atlantic waters Thu through the end of the week.

$$
Ramos
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