[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning Eastern Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a
tropical wave is near 32W, from 14N southward, and is moving W at
around 15 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 09.5N32W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from
06N to 13N between 30W and 36W. This activity is gradually
becoming better organized and environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form over the next day or two. This system is expected
to move westward at 15-20 kt across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this week, with
associated winds and seas spreading W of 35W by this evening.
Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late Mon night and
a gale warning has been issued. There is a high (80%) chance of
tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a high
(90%) chance of development through the next seven days. Please
refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (with AL92) in the eastern Atlantic.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 10N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Only isolated showers and are
observed in the vicinity of the tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W/62W, south of 12N, moving
W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm east
of the wave N of 09N.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 84W/85W from
18N southward into the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W
at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 11N to 16N between 80W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
16.5N16.5W to 10N26W to 05N45W. No ITCZ is currently present. In
addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from
05N to 15N between 16W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted west of the Yucatan peninsula, with gentle
to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft
range over the SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Smoke due to
agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in
coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Atlantic through
the Straits of Florida and to the south central Gulf will
generally persist through the next several days. Fresh winds will
pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the
forecast period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally
fresh in the NW and W central Gulf today through Thu night. A weak
front may sink into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the
central and western Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Smoke due to agricultural fires over portions of Central America
may be reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades from
the central Caribbean to Nicaragua through this afternoon, then
again across the central Caribbean tonight through early Wed.
Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
before sunrise today, then moderate to fresh through at least Thu.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions to the west of 78W through Mon. A strong tropical wave,
and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the
Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential.

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 15N, anchored
by a high center of 1026 mb centered near 32N47W. This is
supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh winds across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, except light to gentle winds in the
vicinity of the high center and fresh to strong winds in the
vicinity of AL92. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in
the vicinity of AL 92. In the far western Atlantic, a mid to
upper level trough is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms N
of 24N and W of 72W, including the northern Bahamas. Winds and
seas may be higher in and near any convection.

For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge
SW through the central Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel, and will
continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front or trough
may shift offshore N Florida and stall early in the week before
dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will
prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola
and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue
from the NW Bahamas to 68W through tonight. A strong tropical
wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into
the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu.

$$
AL
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