[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located
several hundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
near 30W and with a 1011 mb low near 10N29W. The wave axis
extends from 05N to 13N, and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 27W and
33W. This activity is starting to show some signs of
organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form
by the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
There is a medium (60%) chance of tropical cyclone development
through the next 48 hours, and a high (80%) chance of
development through the next seven days. Please refer to the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W from 02N to
10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W from 02N to
10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are
observed inland over Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 81W from 04N to 13N,
moving W at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 09N to 16N between 76W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 06N41W. The ITCZ extends from 05N47W to 03N52W. In addition
to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 14N east of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, supporting
gentle to moderate S-SW winds across the majority of the Gulf. A
surface trough extends along the Yucatan Peninsula, with
moderate to fresh E winds in the Bay of Campeche and moderate SE
winds in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2-4 ft in the SW Gulf and
Yucatan Channel, and 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf and Florida Straits.
In the NE Gulf, middle to upper level diffluence is supporting
thunderstorms in the coastal waters off the Florida panhandle,
west coast, and Keys, extending about 60 nm from the coast.
Smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing
visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extends weakly into the
Gulf through the Straits of Florida to the upper Texas coast,
and will generally persist through early next week. Fresh winds
will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the
forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun
and Sun night. A weak front may sink into the far northern Gulf
by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf for at
least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
tropical wave in the SW Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Trade winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere across
the basin. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central and SW Caribbean and
4-7 ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades from
the central Caribbean to Nicaragua through Sun morning, then
again across the central Caribbean Sun night through early Wed.
Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight, then moderate to fresh through at least Thu. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the
west of 76W through Sun night. A strong tropical wave, and
possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the
Tropical Atlantic waters Thu and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a disturbance (AL92) with tropical cyclone development potential
in the eastern Atlantic.

High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 32N47W extends a ridge
WSW to the central Bahamas and SE to the Canary Islands. This is
supporting mainly moderate winds across the subtropical Atlantic
waters where seas range between 4 to 7 ft. In the far western
Atlantic, a mid to upper level trough is generating heavy
showers and tstms west of 72W, including the northern and
central Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge
just N of the area which will continue to dominate through mid-
week. A weak cold front or trough may shift offshore N Florida
and stall early in the week before dissipating. Mainly gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next several days,
locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. A
strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move
across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu.

$$
Flynn
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