[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170831
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest Area 92L: A tropical wave extends along 26W from 05N to
14N, moving W at 15-20 kt, with a broad 1011 mb low along the
wave near 10N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N
to 12N between 20W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week. The
current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a medium chance of
development over the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the
next seven days. Please refer to the latest outlook at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Invest 92L in the eastern Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W/39W from 023N
to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No nearby significant convection is
noted.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W/54W from
French Guiana near 02N to 10N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No nearby
significant convection is noted.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W/73W near the border of
Colombia and Venezuela, from 12N southward, moving west at 15-20
kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland, and is producing some
scattered moderate convection over NW Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 08N30W to 05N42W. The ITCZ continues from 04N42W to 05N50W.
In addition to the convection described with Invest 92L, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 42W and
46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends just offshore and NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise the pattern is dominated by a surface ridge
extending from the Straits of Florida to the central Texas coast.
Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the
basin under the ridging, except fresh offshore the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the wake of the surface trough. Seas
are generally 3-5 ft, locally 6 ft near the fresh winds, with 1-3
ft in the SW Florida coastal waters and the Straits of Florida.
Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing
visibilities to around 5 nm at coastal sites from the Yucatan
Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure from the Straits of
Florida to the central Texas coast will generally persist through
early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the
NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front may drop
into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at
least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and a 1007 mb low
pressure over northern Colombia is supporting strong easterly
trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are also
observed in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are moderate to fresh
across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 9-12 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the remainder of the central
Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 15N
between 75W and 84W associated with the eastern N Pacific monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
most of the central Caribbean through today, then gradually
spreading westward and weaken through Sun night. Fresh to strong E
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night,
through tonight. Trade winds will become fresh to strong again
across the central Caribbean Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic, extending
from 31N77W to NE of the area. A line of thunderstorms is
observed roughly 60 nm ahead of the trough axis, with a similar
line of convection about 300 nm SE of the trough associated with
a mid-level trough. Winds are moderate to fresh in the western
Atlantic, locally strong N of 29N between 74W and 80W, with 5-8 ft
seas. Otherwise, A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W
dominates the weather pattern. Due to this high pressure, gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds are analyzed across the basin, with
mainly 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, 1023 mb high pressure centered near
31N49W extends a ridge WSW to the central Bahamas, and will
remain in place through today before shifting slightly northward
Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W through this morning.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the
next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern
Hispaniola.

$$
Lewitsky
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