[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from the Guinea-
Bissau coast southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 12W-19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 12N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04N to 08N between 40W and 43W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is mostly inland along 65W and S of 13N,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 13N southward
through Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15
kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W to 07N26W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 07N26W to 06N39W, then continues W of
a tropical wave near 04N43W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 05N-09N between 31W-40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent SE winds east of a surface trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Bay of Campeche are triggering scattered showers
near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge
continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the northwestern and
southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3
ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across
the western Gulf today. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by mid-week,
winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central
Gulf through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to
fresh in the eastern Gulf by tonight into Wed. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies
over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge to the north near 26N is supporting a trade-
wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades
are triggering isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin.
Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist at the
south-central basin just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE
to ESE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central
basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E to SE trades and
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in
northern Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in
fresh to strong trade winds expanding across the central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh
in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours
through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic ridge reaches westward from a 1021 mb high near
26N58W across the western Atlantic to southern Florida. A weak
cold front stretches southwestward from the Azores across 31N34W
to 26N50W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to
31N60W. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present north
of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast.
Similar conditions with E to SE winds are also found farther
southeast from 19N to 24N between 50W and the Greater Antilles.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist north
of 20N between the Africa coast and Bahamas. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft
dominate from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W.
Farther west, gentle to moderate with fresh NE to E trades and 4
to 6 ft seas are noted from 05N to 19N/20N between 30W and the
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal
westerly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail from the central
Atlantic westward to the central Bahamas through today. The
associated gradient will maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds
across the western Atlantic today. A cold front will become
stationary over the southeastern U.S. through mid-week. Ahead of
it, SW moderate to fresh winds will develop beginning on Thu
across the waters N of 27N. Another cold front will move into the
southeastern U.S. late Sat night preceded by moderate to fresh SW
winds. Winds will pulse to fresh north of Hispaniola this
afternoon and evening.

$$
ERA
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