[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 08N between 34W and 36W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 12N southward
into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 11N between 53W and
Trinidad/Tobago.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from 13N southward into
Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring over northern and central
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
just north of Dakar and extends southwestward through 10N23W to
08N27W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring
up south of the trough from 04N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra
Leone coast and 16W, and farther west from 04N to 08N between 20W
and 25W.

An ITCZ continues westward from 08N27W to 06N34W, then from
05N37W across 05N45W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
found near and up to 150 nm north of the second ITCZ segment. The
eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is causing isolated
thunderstorms at the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad but
modest 1011 mb high at the north-central Gulf continues to
dominate the region. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft
exist at the north-central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary is expected to sink farther
south across Texas Tue through early Thu, causing winds at the
western Gulf to gradually increase to fresh and expand to the
central Gulf. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally
fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies across the
southwestern Gulf tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high at the
central Atlantic to the northwestern basin. Convergent
southeasterly winds south of the ridge axis are triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western Cuba and
nearby Caribbean waters. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and
seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin north of
Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and 5 to 7
ft seas are noted across the north-central and eastern basin, and
at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas
at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between the surface ridge and
lower pressure at northern Colombia will tighten this week. This
should cause trade winds to become fresh to strong while
significantly expanding across the central Caribbean tonight
through most of the upcoming week. Winds will pulse to strong in
the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon
through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds continue to couple with modest
divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northeastward to near
28N69W. A stationary front south of Bermuda is producing widely
scattered showers north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are present
west of 70W from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. Otherwise,
a broad Atlantic Ridge related to a 1021 mb high near 26N56W is
supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N
between the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. To the south,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas
of 4 to 7 ft are present from 13N to 23N between the central
Africa coast and 30W, and also from 07N to 23N between 30W and
the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain
gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic through Mon.
As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, moderate to
locally fresh S to SW winds will develop Mon night through Thu
across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portion of the
western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to shift
northwest tonight and diminish significantly by Mon night. Winds
will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and
evenings. By Thu, fresh winds will increase in coverage north of
29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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