[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS:

Moist southerly middle level wind flow, and a nearby upper
level jet stream, are helping to maintain the potential for
heavy rainfall amounts. More than 4 inches (100 mm) of rain
have been measured in isolated areas in eastern Cuba during
the last 24 hours. More rain is forecast during the next
2 days or 3 days. The comparatively greatest rain amounts
are expected to occur through Saturday afternoon, in parts
of eastern and central Cuba, and in the central Bahamas.
It is possible that these rains may cause flooding, especially
in the mountainous areas of eastern and central Cuba. Please,
read the latest forecast from your national meteorological
service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13W/14W, from
10N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm
to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is
within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W,
from 13N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
180 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W,
from 12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots
to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
300 nm to the west of the tropical wave, mostly inland.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 13N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 210 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 11N to 13N. Other precipitation is inland.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 08N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 07N42W 07N55W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 12N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient currently is flat and weak.
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 26N southward.
The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the SE corner, and
in the far SW corner. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot
elsewhere. The wind speeds are light and gentle.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to
the north of the line, from the middle Texas Gulf coast
into the central Gulf, into the SE corner.

A weak pressure gradient generally will prevail through
the end of the week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds.
Moderate to locally fresh return flow will develop in the
western Gulf during the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section.
It is possible for heavy rainfall amounts to reach
Cuba, through Saturday afternoon.

An Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high pressure center is near
27N53W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure
center, to the Dominican Republic along 70W, to NW Cuba.

Strong, and some near gale-force, easterly winds cover
the waters that are from Colombia and Venezuela between
68W and the Windward Passage. Fresh winds are elsewhere
in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate SE winds are in the NW corner. Gentle winds
are in the SW corner. The sea heights range: from 5 feet
to 8 feet in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea;
from 4 feet to 5 feet to the east of the central sections;
from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the area that
is between 70W and 80W; reaching 1 foot in the SW corner;
reaching 2 feet in the NW corner.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the
areas that are from 15N80W to Cuba. This precipitation
is at the eastern edges of the multilayered cyclonic wind
flow that is covering the Gulf of Mexico, and it is
spilling over into parts of the NW Caribbean Sea.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean through Fri. The ridge will weaken Fri
night through the weekend which will modestly diminish
winds and seas across the basin. A return to a more
typical easterly trade wind regime is expected early
next week with locally strong trades in the south
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section.
It is possible for heavy rainfall amounts to reach
the Bahamas through Saturday afternoon.

A surface trough is along 31N35W 23N40W 19N47W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from
31N48W to 20N70W. The comparatively greatest amount
of precipitation is the scattered strong that is from
22N to 24N between 74W and 76W in the Bahamas.
Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights that range
from 6 feet to 8 feet, are ahead of the front.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N29W. One
surface trough extends from the low pressure center to
27N20W. A second surface trough extends from the low
pressure center to 15N41W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 14N northward from 50W eastward.
The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet to the
northeast of the 1015 mb low pressure center.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Strong and near gale-force SW winds are from 27N
northward between 60W and 66W, on the southern side
of a frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are in the coastal waters of Africa from 14N to 20N
from 21W eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
are from 21N southward between 38W and 60W. Moderate
winds are elsewhere between 38W and 60W. Moderate to
fresh anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that
are from 66W westward. Gentle winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high pressure center is near
27N53W. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure
center, to the Dominican Republic along 70W, to NW Cuba.

Fresh to strong winds over the SW Atlantic will occur
through Fri night due to a tightening pressure gradient
between the high pressure system over the central
Atlantic and lower pressures off the SE United States.
High pressure will weaken over the upcoming weekend
which will decrease in winds and seas across the
area waters.

$$
mt/akr
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