[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall possible for Cuba and Bahamas:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area will maintain the potential for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is ongoing over eastern Cuba
with amounts accumulating 4 to 6 inches in the last 24 hours. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to occur through Sat afternoon
across portions of eastern and central Cuba and the central
Bahamas. These rains could cause flooding, especially over mountainous
areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast
from your national meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from
13N to 01N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N
between 31W and 37W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, from 12N to
inland Suriname, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between the wave and 59N.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 71W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. The wave is
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection over NW
Colombia and offshore Panama in the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 13N17W to 08N19W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 08N30W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N 09N between the
west coast of Africa to 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
also within 90nm of the ITCZ west of 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1012 mb high pressure center located over the western
Gulf supports mainly quiet weather conditions and light to
gentle anticyclonic flow over the basin. Westerly flow is noted
mainly north of 25N and SE flow is noted in the SW portion of
the basin. SW winds and isolated showers and thunderstorms are
noted over the eastern Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generally
prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly
gentle to moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop
across the western Gulf over the upcoming weekend

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect Cuba
through Sat afternoon.

The pressure gradient between high pressure building northeast
of the area and a tropical wave in the Caribbean is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean waters east of
75W, with moderate to fresh trades east of 65W. Light to gentle
SE breezes cover the NW and SW Caribbean. 6 to 8 ft seas are
noted over the central Caribbean between 78W and 64W. Seas may
be up to 10 ft offshore Colombia due to the strong winds. 3 to 5
ft seas are west of 78W, except in the NW basin, where seas are
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Seas will peak
near 9 ft. The ridge will weaken Fri night through the weekend,
with winds and seas across the basin diminishing modestly. A
return to a more typical easterly trade wind regime is expected
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect
the Bahamas through Sat afternoon.

A ridge from a high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 31N51W
extends westward to the Greater Antilles. Another high pressure
center of 1020mb is located slightly farther south near 24N58W.
The increasing pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures off SE United States is supporting a large swath of
fresh to strong S to SE winds from 22N to 31N between 60W and
75W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted over the northern
Bahamas and west of 75W. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft north of 20N
and between 72W and 62W, and range from 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between the
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures off SE United
States will sustain fresh to strong SW winds through Fri night
with seas peaking near 9 ft. The area of high pressure will then
weaken over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decrease in winds
and seas across the area waters.

Farther east, a cold front extends from a low north of the area
near 31N39W to 26N50W. Moderate NW to W winds are following the
boundary. Isolated showers are between 35W and 50W, further
supported by a prefrontal trough about 150 nm east of the front.
A very weak area of low pressure is near 22N31W, supporting
isolated showers in the NE quadrant of the low. However, high
pressure mainly dominates the eastern Atlantic allowing for
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 3 to 5 ft seas.

$$
MORA
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