[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur from
Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon, especially across portions
of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially
over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see
the latest forecast from your national meteorological service
for more information.

Developing gale-force winds for the Meteo-France marine zones in
the eastern part of Irving: The Meteo-France forecast consists
of developing gale-force winds in the marine zones in the
eastern part of Irving from 06/1800 UTC until 07/0300 UTC.
Please visit the website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/
bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20230606092016055965 for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been analyzed near 20W,
from 14N southward.  Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 04N-08N between 15W-18W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 41W, from
13N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. Currently, no
deep convection is associated with this tropical wave.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 63W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Currently, no deep
convection is associated with this tropical wave.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 75W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Currently, no deep
convection is associated with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 02N39W. It
resumes from 02N43W to 04N52W along the coast of Brazil.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted north
of 01N east of 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern this morning is forcing only light to
gentle winds with seas 1-2 ft over the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 25N west of
88W in association with an upper-level trough over Louisiana.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across
the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect the NW
Caribbean Wed night through Fri afternoon.

Low pressure associated with a cold front just north of the
Bahamas is contributing toward a flat pressure gradient across
the Caribbean today. As a result, E to SE trades are only gentle
to moderate and seas 3-5 ft in the E Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring from 14N-20N between 80W-
85W. This is likely being forced by upper-level divergence.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic
will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and
the tropical Atlantic today, with occasional fresh pulses across
the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure
will build north of the area through early Fri, increasing winds
and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle
to end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the
Bahamas Wed night through Fri afternoon as well as a Gale
Warning for the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends west-southwestward down to 26N76W from a
1007 mb low at 31N61W. Winds ahead of the front are SW fresh to
strong breeze with seas 6-8 ft. Isolated moderate convection is
noted within 60 NM of the front. Farther east, a complex area of
low pressure near 37N24W extends a cold front from 31N18W to
25N20W where it transitions to a warm front.  That front then
reaches westward to a 1008 mb low at 25N29W.  The front
continues westward as a cold front to 26N45W, where it
transitions to a stationary front reaching to 31N47W. Just south
of the low, winds are SW fresh to strong with seas 8-9 ft. Near
the Canary Islands, north of 28N east of 20W, the winds are SW
to S strong to near gale with seas 8-11 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 24N-27N between 20W-25W. The Bermuda
High is shifted well south of its normal position, located this
morning at 20N55W with 1018 mb pressure. Unless noted above,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front north of the
Bahamas will drift SE through tonight and dissipate. Central
Atlantic high pressure will build westward to 70W through late
Wed, and then across the remaining waters through Fri.

$$
CWL/SS
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