[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, for CUBA, THE BAHAMAS, JAMAICA,
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS:

Moist southerly middle level wind flow, and enhanced
rising air motion may lead to the potential for strong
convective precipitation from Wed afternoon through
Fri night. The enhanced rising air motion is due to
a strong upper level jet stream that is positioned just
to the NW of the areas that are in question. It is
possible that these rains may cause flooding, especially
in mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please,
read the latest forecast from your national meteorological
service for more information.

DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE METEO-FRANCE
MARINE ZONES: in the eastern part of IRVING, and in
MADEIRA:

The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of developing gale-force
winds in the marine zones: in the eastern part of IRVING
from 06/1500 UTC until 07/0000 UTC, and in MADEIRA from
06/0900 UTC until 06/1500 UTC. Please, visit the following
website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/
bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20230605201132458566, for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from
14N southward, moving westward about 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 520 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Some
of the precipitation also is close to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from
14N southward, moving westward about 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 650 nm to the east of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from
14N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave, inland
in parts of Colombia and Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N20W, and to 05N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N26W, to 02N37W and 01N49W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N
to 06N between 16W and 19W, and from 05N to 09N between
20W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient is flat and comparatively
weak. A 500 mb level trough covers parts of the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitaiton:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
in the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate is in
parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the coastal waters
of the Florida Panhandle, and off the coast of the NW
Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 1 foot to
2 feet in the remainder of the area. The wind speeds are
gentle to moderate.

High pressure will generally prevail across the basin
through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off
the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 500 mb level trough covers parts of the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitaiton:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
in the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate is in
parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet from 70W
eastward. An exception is in the coastal waters of
Venezuela, for 2 feet, along 70W. The sea heights are
reaching 3 feet in the central sections of the Caribbean
Sea that are between 70W and 80W. The sea heights are
reaching 2 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Lower surface pressure near and to the of the Bahamas is
contributing toward only light to gentle winds in the
central and W Caribbean from 75W westward. An exception
is for moderate to fresh trade winds in the Gulf of
Honduras. A comparatively lower latitude Atlantic Ocean
surface ridge that is along 22N is contributing toward
moderate to fresh SE trades in the E Caribbean Sea.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic will
maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean
and the tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional
fresh pulses in the SE Caribbean and along the coast of
Venezuela. High pressure will build through early Fri,
increasing winds and seas in the eastern and central
Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. Active
weather is expected across N central portions Wed
through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N64W, to a 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 29N68W. The front continues
to a second 1008 mb low pressure center that is near
29N74W. The cold front continues to 25N79W near the
NW Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the north and northwest of the line that
runs from 30N50W, to the eastern tip of the Dominican
Republic. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the
period that ended at 06/0000 UTC, is: 1.42 in Bermuda,
according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. NE fresh to strong winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, are to
the north of the front. Fresh SW winds, and sea heights
that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are to the southeast
of the front.

A cold front curves through 31N23W, to 26N34W, to 31N50W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N
northward from 50W eastward. Strong westerly winds, and
sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, are from
24N to the front. Strong to near gale-force winds, and
sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are
to the east of 35W from 25N northward.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 20N53W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is within 450 nm to the east of
the high pressure center, and within 600 nm to the west
of the high pressure center. A surface ridge runs along
20N. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, are to the north of the ridge.
Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 5 feet, are elsewhere to the south of the
ridge.

A weak cold front will sink southward through the NW
Bahamas and into southern Florida this evening before
stalling tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and
large NE swell will prevail N of the front through this
evening before winds gradually diminish tonight. Central
Atlantic high pressure will build westward to 70W through
late Wed, and then across the remaining waters through Fri.

$$
mt/al
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