[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051652
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 35W, from
14N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 32W-38W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 54W, from
13N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. There is limited
deep convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 69W, from 14N
southward, moving westward around 10 knots. There is limited
deep convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N48W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 05N-10N
east of 16W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N-06N between 16W-26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front extends across the NE Gulf from 29N83W
to 30N87W. A trough extends over portion of the SE Gulf from
26N83W to 26N85W. An upper-level low is centered near 28N89W.
Scattered moderate convection is associated with the low north
of 27N west of 82W. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to moderate
with seas 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the middle of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the western
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Very low latitude surface ridging east of 70W along 22N are
contributing toward moderate to fresh SE trades in the E
Caribbean this morning. Low pressure over and north of the
Bahamas are contributing toward only light to gentle winds over
the central and W Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 11N west of 80W in connection to the eastern
extent of the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough. Seas are 3-
6 ft in the E Caribbean and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern across the region
will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and
the tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses
across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High
pressure will build to the northeast of the basin, increasing
winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the
middle to end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N81W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 30N73W to S Florida peninsula near 27N80W.
North of the front, winds are NE fresh to strong with seas 8-12
ft. In the central Atlantic, a 1007 mb low at 29N46W has a cold
front extending west-northwestward to 30N50W and a warm front
east-southeastward to 28N40W. Winds equatorward of the frontal
boundaries are W fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft. Farther
east, a 1002 mb low at 29N30W has a trough extending
southwestward to 24N35W. East of the trough axis, winds are SW
fresh to near gale with seas 8-11 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 25N east of 40W. Very low latitude
ridging is noted from 23N20W to 16N35W to 20N60W to 22N70W.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic north of the ridge, winds are
moderate to fresh with seas 5-7 ft. South of the ridge, the
trades are only gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and large NE
swell will prevail over the waters off northeast Florida today
as a weakening cold front sinks S into the NW Bahamas and S
Florida. Winds will diminish this afternoon through tonight,
while NE swell subsides more slowly and persists into Tue
morning. Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the
forecast waters throughout the week.

$$
Landsea
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