[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 010537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development
over the next day or so as the system meanders over the northeastern
or eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida
Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy
rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula
through this weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on later today, if
necessary. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2023 is as follows:

Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Arlene        ar-LEEN            Lee          lee
Bret          bret               Margot       MAR-go
Cindy         SIN-dee            Nigel        NY-juhl
Don           dahn               Ophelia      o-FEEL-ya
Emily         EH-mih-lee         Philippe     fee-LEEP
Franklin      FRANK-lin          Rina         REE-nuh
Gert          gert         Sean         shawn
Harold        HAIR-uld           Tammy        TAM-ee
Idalia        ee-DAL-ya          Vince        vinss
Jose          ho-Zay             Whitney      WHIT-nee
Katia         KAH-tya

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.  The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the
threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours.  For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products.  Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",
etc.).

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar.  It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a
special advisory package.  Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be
issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC,
and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and
updated products for the 2023 season can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via
Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.
Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is
available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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