[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Low pressure centered
about 700 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands, near 22N51W, is producing
showers and thunderstorms that have become a little more
concentrated since this afternoon. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 48W and 51W.
Strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are associated with this low.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable
for gradual development of this system over the next few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early this week. The
system is expected to move NW at 10 to 15 kt over the next day or
so, then turn N over the central subtropical Atlantic late Mon or
Tue. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development of
this system through the next 48 hours. Please see the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic with its axis
along 27W from the equator to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection has developed behind the wave from
10N to 13N E of 27W.

A tropical wave extends along 61W, crossing the Lesser Antilles,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands in association with this
wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 81W, S of Cuba,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered convection is noted to the W
of the wave axis over the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 09N39W. Convection along the trough is primarily associated
with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, described in the section
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered just offshore the NW Gulf
coast. A trough previously in the eastern Bay of Campeche has
dissipated. Winds are mainly gentle with seas of 1 to 3 ft. An
area of moderate to locally fresh NW winds is occurring W of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain the dominant feature
across the basin through early this week, currently anchored by
a 1019 mb high centered near 28N93W. This will support gentle to
moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where
winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off
the Yucatan Peninsula each night. High pressure will shift SE
into the east Gulf Tue and Wed and allow for moderate return flow
to develop across the W Gulf Wed through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on the wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The gradient between the expansive subtropical high and lower
pressure over Colombia/Panama is supporting enhanced easterly
trades winds across the basin. Trades are fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean with 7-9 ft seas, and moderate to locally fresh
in the eastern and western Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia will
maintain pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean through Mon morning, then become confined to the south
central Caribbean through Thu. An area of low pressure near 22N51W
this evening is expected to move NW into the open Atlantic
through Wed. As this occurs, Atlantic ridging N of the area will
be disrupted.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on low
pressure well NE of the Leeward Islands that has a potential of
tropical development.

The weather pattern is dominated by a subtropical high pressure
ridge with its axis oriented E-W along 33N. In the western
Atlantic winds are moderate to to locally fresh from the S with
4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, aside from where AL96 is
impacting waters, trades are mainly moderate with seas generally
4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate with 4-6 ft
seas. The exception is fresh to locally strong winds in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will gradually shift E-NE through the week.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue S of 23N through early
Tue before diminishing. Fresh trades will pulse Mon and Tue
afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. Surface low pressure across the central Atlantic near
21.5N51W will move NW then N and brush the NE offshore zones Tue
through early Wed before exiting the region to the N, which will
act to disrupt the Atlantic ridge. A weak frontal trough will sink
S into the waters offshore of NE Florida Tue night and move SE
and reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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