[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 40W from 03N to
19N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 16N between 33W and 45W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 62W from 03N to
19N moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave.

A robust tropical wave in the central Caribbean is located near
82W from 04N to 20N moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N
between 78W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 12N50W. Aside from the
convection described in the section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted along the boundary mainly W of 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the Florida peninsula with
scattered moderate convection prevailing in the vicinity of the
trough E of 85W. To the W, another surface trough, the reflection
of an upper level low, over the Bay of Campeche is inducing
scattered showers W of 92W. Weak surface ridging prevails
elsewhere across the basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail over the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
about the wave moving across the western Caribbean.

A 1026 mb Bermuda high is located near 33N47W and is maintaining
a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a
robust tropical wave, fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6 to 9
ft are noted over the central basin, including waters between
Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are evident for the eastern basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with
seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce pulsing
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through early
Mon. A strong tropical wave over the west Caribbean will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sat, before
moving into central America. Another strong tropical wave is
expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by
late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough across the Florida peninsula along with abundant
tropical moisture is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms W of 78W. Elsewhere, the Bermuda High centered near
33N47W prevails with no convection noted.  In the western
Atlantic winds are generally moderate from the ESE with 4-6 ft
seas. In the central Atlantic, the gradient between a ridge of
high pressure and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is
generating gentle to moderate easterly winds north of 28N with
3-5 ft seas, and moderate to fresh south of 28N with 6-9 ft seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE
with 5-8 ft seas. Strong NE winds are noted along the coast of
Africa, and near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward
through the weekend as a surface trough along the Florida
Peninsula continues moving west-northwestward into southeastern
U.S. over the next few days. Active weather will continue within
150 nm on either side of the trough. Fresh trades will pulse
nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong
tropical wave will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun
through Mon, with surface low pressure expected to develop.

$$
ERA
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