[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 201446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
300 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

Don has not intensified this morning, as a curved convective band
north of the center has begun to weaken. However, visible
satellite imagery and a recent scatterometer pass indicate that
the storm remains well-organized around a clear circulation center.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates continue to
support an initial intensity of 45 kt, which is unchanged from the
prior advisory. However, this may be a bit generous based on the
late-arriving scatterometer pass.

The initial motion is now 290/7 kt.  Don is expected to turn to
the northwest and then northward during the next 72 h, associated
with a low to mid-level ridge that is forecast to build north and
east of the forecast track. The guidance has continued to shift
westward after 36 h, and the forecast track after 48 h is thus
shifted slightly west of the previous forecast.  The forecast track
represents a blend of the consensus aids and the prior forecast.
After 72 h, Don is forecast to recurve northeastward and north of
the mid-level ridge.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for some strengthening
during the next day or so, and the intensity forecast continues to
indicate an increase in intensity to 50 kt during early portion of
the forecast period. After 24 h, as Don begins to traverse cooler
sea surface temperatures, the cyclone is forecast to cross its
prior track and begin a weakening trend. By 96 h, Don is forecast
to degenerate into a post-tropical low and dissipate by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 34.4N  42.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.9N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 35.7N  45.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 37.0N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 40.8N  50.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 42.8N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 46.7N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown
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