[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.9N 39.2W at 18/2100 UTC
or 620 nm WSW of the Azores moving S at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 90 nm SE semicircle.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 22W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 12N between 16W and 26W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 52W from 16N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N
between 50W and 60W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 78W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 22N
between 74W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to 11N20W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from
11N40W to 11N51W. It resumes from 10N55W to 11N60W. Aside from
convection discussed in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 33W
and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters. Gentle to
locally moderate winds are found over the SW Gulf, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the SW
Gulf, and 1-2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the forecast period
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay
of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft,
are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 2-4 ft, are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to
near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela Wed and Thu during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails over the discussion waters N of 20N. Fresh
to strong winds are found N of Hispaniola, with moderate winds
elsewhere W of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over
the discussion waters. Seas of 4-7 ft generally prevaiL.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure will prevail
across the forecast waters this week. This will support mainly
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to
strong winds and rough seas N of Hispaniola at night through Thu
night.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net