[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 182034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
900 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

Deep convection has re-developed on the eastern side of Don this
afternoon, though most of the circulation is pretty skeletal.  The
initial wind speed remains 35 kt, close to the latest TAFB
satellite classification, and hopefully the evening scatterometer
passes will hit the storm for the next advisory to get a more
precise estimate of the winds.

The environment near Don gets slightly more conducive for
strengthening during the next day or two with warmer SSTs, higher
mid-level moisture, and light or moderate shear.  Gradual
intensification is shown through Thursday, similar to the last
forecast and near or below the model consensus.  At long range, the
storm should pass over its own cool wake, and the environment
becomes less conducive overall. The model guidance is lower on this
cycle for late week, closer to the previous NHC wind speed
prediction.  Thus, little change in strength is shown at days 3-4,
and Don should lose its deep convection around day 5 when it moves
north of the Gulf Stream.

Don has slowed and turned southward, now at around 6 kt.  The storm
should move southwestward on Wednesday and west-northwestward on
Thursday due to steering from a blocking ridge in the north-central
Atlantic.   As the ridge slides eastward, Don is likely to head
northward by Saturday and accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday.
The model spread has increased on this cycle, but there's still a
tendency for the weaker model solutions to be east of the model
consensus.  Since the NHC intensity prediction remains on the low
side of the guidance, it is reasonable for the track forecast to
remain east of the model consensus, resulting in little net change
to the NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 34.9N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 34.1N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 33.7N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 33.8N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 34.3N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 35.2N  44.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 36.5N  46.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 40.5N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 46.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net