[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140942
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 32.9N 46.8W at 14/0900
UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores moving N at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident with 150 nm in the eastern semicircle
of Don. The storm will gradually weaken as it moves slowly
northward or north- northwestward motion during the next couple
of days as a building ridge over the central Atlantic prevents it
from accelerating rapidly northward. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo France is continuing a gale
warning for around the Canary Islands between low pressure over
Mauritania and high pressure of the Azores. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N and between 35W and
38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 54W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 77W, south of
22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present along the tropical wave axis between Jamaica and eastern
Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau at 11N16W and continues to 14N25W to 09N35W to
12N45W. The ITCZ extends from 12N44W to 10N51W and then from
08N55W to 11N61W. Aside from the convection described in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 15W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1016 mb high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Except for a few
showers off SW Florida, no deep convection is seen on satellite
imagery across the basin. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressures over Mexico support moderate to fresh
E-SE winds in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. Seas
in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters,
through early next week, while a trough will develop over the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move offshore. This pattern
will maintain moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of
the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade wind convergence along the monsoon trough over the southwest
Cairbbean is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms are
present within 90 nm of the coast of Panama and Costa Rica.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted ahead
of the tropical wave between Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
eastern Honduras. The rest of the Caribbean is under a generally
dry weather pattern that only supports isolated showers produced
by shallow pockets of moisture that catch a ride in the trade
winds.

The pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and lower
pressures across NW South America support fresh to near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds occurring off NW Colombia. This was confirmed by an earlier
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba to
eastern Panama will move across the remainder of the Caribbean
through late Sat. Active weather is noted ahead of the tropical
wave from eastern Honduras to central Cuba. Another tropical wave
will move across the Windward Islands into the southeastern
Caribbean Sat afternoon, then weaken as it moves across the
central Caribbean through Sun night and across the western
Caribbean Mon and Mon night. The passage of the tropical waves
will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the central
Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic and a
GALE WARNING in the eastern Atlantic.

Two areas of high pressure anchor a broad ridge that dominate the
tropical Atlantic. A 1019 mb high pressure system centered between
Bermuda and Puerto Rico maintains fairly tranquil weather
conditions across the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh
SE winds are noted south of 22N and west of 60W. Seas in the area
described are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas
of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of area W of 55W.

Farther east, a 1026 mb high pressure system near the Azores
maintains a primarily dry weather pattern across the eastern
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high and lower
pressures over NW Africa support moderate to fresh easterly winds
north of 22N and between 25W and 40W. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are also present
south of 20N and between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, along with
seas of 4-6 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist
northeast of the Bahamas through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. Looking
ahead, the ridge will shift northward early next week ahead of a
tropical wave that will be approaching the area from the east.

$$
Christensen
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