[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W from 19N to
06N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 12N between 14W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W from 19N to
08N, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles extends along 55-56W
from 18N to 02N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 14N between 54W and 58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 81W from 21N to 04N,
moving west at 15 kt. Due to the interaction between this wave
and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, convection covers an
extensive area in the western Caribbean Sea. Currently,
scattered moderate convection is observed in the SW Caribbean
from 09N to 15N between 75W and 83W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed in the NW Caribbean from 15N to 22N
between 80W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W
to 07N31W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 07N31W to 05N38W
and from 05N44W to 07N83W. All significant convection is
described in the tropical waves section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb high pressure is centered in the NE Gulf near 28N87W.
The pressure gradient between this weak high and lower pressure
over Mexico is supporting moderate E to SE winds in the SW Gulf.
In the NE Gulf, winds are gentle from the S to W. Seas are 3-5
ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. A pair of
surface troughs extends along the Florida and Yucatan
Peninsulas. A line of thunderstorms is observed in the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is observed
throughout the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and
Florida Straits.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a diurnal trough
develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over
the eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate breezes and
slight seas elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large clusters of moderate to strong convection in the NW and SW
Caribbean are primarily associated with a tropical wave
described in the Tropical Waves section above. A strong low-
level wind surge follows this tropical wave in the basin, with
20-25 kt winds extending from the wave axis eastward to near
69W.  Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are currently 6-9 ft across the majority of the basin, on a slow
abating trend.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through tonight and gradually diminish Friday.
Fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will develop
again Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low pressure near 27N58W disrupts overall high
pressure dominating the basin. A line of thunderstorms is noted
along the coast of Florida and near the NW Bahamas due an upper-
level trough. West of 70W, winds are moderate from the SW with 3-
5 ft seas. Strong winds are noted near the SE Bahamas and
entrance to the Windward Passage. North of 20N between 70W and
50W, winds are gentle with 3-4 ft seas. South of 20N and east of
the Lesser Antilles, an increased pressure gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1027 mb high
centered near 34N37W. The gradient between this feature and
lower pressure along the monsoon trough is supporting moderate
trades and 3-5 ft seas in the central Atlantic. Lower pressure
over NW Africa is creating a tighter gradient in the eastern
subtropical Atlantic, generating fresh to strong NE winds and 6-
9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of
the area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail into early next week, pulsing to locally strong N of
Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening hours through
Sat. The high pressure ridge will shift south Sat night, ahead
of a series of weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and
Bermuda through Sun. These troughs will produce fresh SW winds
across the northern waters Sat through Mon.

$$
Flynn
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