[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 16N southward, and
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 01N to 12N between 45W and 52W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from Haiti to Colombia
border, moving W at near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 90 nm on both sides of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 12N26W. No significant convection is
noted along the monsoon trough. The ITCZ extends from 12N26W to
14N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N
between 27W and 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 10N is
causing scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters
near northwestern Colombia and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Two surface trough that extends across the western Gulf are
inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 19N
to 29N between 90W and 97W. Earlier altimeter imagery depicted
seas up to 6 ft in this area convection. The northern tip of an
eastern Pacific tropical wave extends into the Bay of Campeche,
where scattered moderate convection is occurring. Otherwise, a
1019 mb high centered offshore the Florida Panhandle is dominating
the sensible weather across the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 2 ft are present at the eastern Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE return flow
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, outside of
convection.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough over the western Gulf
will move NW and inland by this evening, taking scattered showers
and thunderstorms and fresh to locally strong SE winds with it.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops and moves
offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will support gentle to
moderate breezes and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate convection is seen S of western Cuba in association with
an upper level trough. Other areas of convection are seen in the
central and SW basin and are due to the Monsoon Trough and a
Tropical Wave. Please see the Tropical Wave and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for more details. Fresh to strong trades
and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident near the tropical wave at the
central basin. Moderate to fresh ESE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are
seen at the eastern basin. Moderate ENE to E trades and seas at 4
to 6 ft are noted for the southwestern basin and the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate NE to ENE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
move west across the western Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave mainly
across the central Caribbean. Another tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers
much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge near
Hispaniola and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Hazy conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within this area
for the next couple of days.

Deep layer low pressure S of Bermuda near 29N60W is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 23N to 31N between 49W and
74W. Another area of scattered convection is seen across the
northern Bahamas. This area of convection is associated with low
level convergence. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections above for details on additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extends WSW from a 1027 mb Azores High
centered near 37N41W across Bermuda to the NE Bahamas. This
ridging is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
N of 25N, except in the far E Atlantic in the vicinity of and
south of the Canary Islands, where fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft prevail. To the S of the main influence of the ridge,
moderate to locally fresh trades dominate, except for waters near
and S of the Cabo Verde Islands, where gentle and variable winds
prevail. Seas S of 23N are 5 to 8 ft, highest just E of the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak Bermuda High will maintain
a weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of
the area through Thu. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail into Fri night, occurring with and behind a tropical wave
moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the high pressure
ridge will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak troughs
moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun. One of
these troughs will likely produce fresh SW winds across the
northern waters over the weekend.

$$
AReinhart
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