[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through
Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8
feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind
speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 05N09W, through the
Equator along 17W, to 01S23W and 01S33W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward from
30W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the central coastal sections
of Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W, and then
northwestward beyond the Texas Big Bend. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are to the west of the line that passes through the
coast of Louisiana along 90W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the
stationary front northward and northwestward. Moderate and
slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

The southern part of a surface trough passes through the Gulf of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northeastward, to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the south of 23N from
90W westward.

Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 90W
westward, and they range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

Light onshore winds and abundant low level moisture are allowing
for some areas of dense fog, in the the coastal plains and in
the coastal waters, from the coast of west central Florida to
Texas. The visibilities are less than one mile with fog in some
cases, and ranging from 3 miles to 5 miles or less, in the other
cases. The marine conditions will improve throughout the
afternoon of today on Wednesday. Dense fog is expected to return
during the overnight hours and morning hours, through Wednesday
night.

A stationary front from the western Louisiana coast to near
Barra del Tordo, Mexico will remain in place into Thu, before a
surge of cold air moves south into the Gulf, pushing the front
across the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds can be
expected behind the front, with gales Fri offshore Veracruz,
Mexico. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat across
the basin as high pressure builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that has been issued for the coastal
waters of Colombia.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, covering the entire Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the SW corner. Fresh to strong
NE winds are within 240 nm to the south of Hispaniola, including
moving through the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are in
the NW corner. Gentle to moderate winds have been in the SE
corner. Moderate to fresh winds have been in the NE corner. The
sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 17N southward
between 68W and 80W. The sea heights of 11 feet are closer to
the coast of Colombia near 77W. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
Sat night. These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening
to early morning hours through Thu night. Fresh to strong
easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola through Thu night as well.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N63W, to 28N68W, to
30N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on
either side of the dissipating cold front.

A surface trough is along 02N47W 10N51W 20N53W 30N53W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
is from 02N southward between 44W and Brazil. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 540 nm to the east of the
surface trough from 06N to 12N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
within 500 nm on either side of the surface trough, mostly to
the east of the surface trough. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 10 feet within 450 nm to 900 nm to the east of the
surface trough from 14N southward. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 8 feet within 180 nm on either side of the surface
trough from 23N northward.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 25N northward
between 27W and 47W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet
within 300 nm to the ENE of the Cabo Verde Islands, and within
300 nm to the ENE of the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet in some of the areas
that are from 30N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 300 nm to the west of
Africa from 12N to 25N. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E winds are from
23N northward between 26W and 40W. Moderate NE-to-E winds are
from 23N southward from 66W westward. Fresh NE winds are within
60 nm of the northern coast of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W.
Fresh NE winds are moving through the Mona Passage. Moderate
wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure along 28N is supporting moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N, with strong wind near the entrance to the Windward
Passage, and gentle breezes elsewhere. The high pressure will
shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls along
30N. Looking ahead, SW winds are likely to increase Thu night
and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another
cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri and
reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat.

$$
mt/ec
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