[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night.
Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02S22W to
02N35W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
02N to 05N between 35W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends off the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted north of the front,
over the coastal waters. Moist air near the front is also a focus
for dense fog this morning across the coastal waters from Texas
to the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will move little through mid
week. Another push of cold air will move the front more rapidly
Thu. This front will then move E across the Gulf through Fri,
bringing fresh northerly winds in its wake. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish Sat across the basin as high pressure
builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

High pressure centered north of the northern Bahamas and east of
northeast Florida is supporting fresh to strong NE winds across
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. The gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America
is supporting a large band of fresh winds, pulsing to gale force
off the higher terrain along the coast of Colombia. Seas are
moderate to rough in these areas. Fresh E winds are noted across
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia through Sat. These winds will pulse to and gale force
late evening to early morning hours through Thu. Fresh to strong
easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms are evident along a cold front
extending east-to-west along 30N, west of 75W. Ridging along 28N
west of 55W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of
22N, except for a small area of fresh to strong winds near the
entrance to the Windward Passage with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle
breezes and slight seas are evident north of 22N, west of 55W.

Farther east, a trough along 53W is supporting gentle breezes
south of 22N across the western tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft
seas in NE swell. Another trough is evident along 35W between 15W
and 25W. Fresh NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident both north
and south of this trough. Farther east, moderate NE winds and 3 to
5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the high pressure along 28N will shift east
through mid week ahead of a weak cold front that will stall along
30N through Thu. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase Thu night
and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another
cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri night and
reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat.

$$
Christensen
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