[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2235 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu. Seas
will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from
07N15W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from the
equator to 05N from 07W to 13W. Isolated moderate convection is
noted south of 06N and west of 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to
southern Texas. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
noted near the frontal boundary in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh N-NE winds are evident behind the stationary front, along
with seas of 2-4 FT. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the remainder of the basin.

Another stationary front is lingering parallel to the northern
Gulf coast over land. Light onshore winds combined with abundant
moisture are allowing for dense fog, decreasing visibility within
30 nm of the coastline along the north-central Gulf coast. Marine
conditions will improve throughout the afternoon. Dense fog is
expected to return during the overnight and morning hours through
Wednesday.

For the forecast, a stationary front just offshore the Texas and
Louisiana coast will remain stalled into Wed night, before
another push of cold air transitions the front to a cold front
by Thu. This front will then move E across the Gulf through Fri,
bringing fresh to strong N winds in its wake. Gales are expected
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, behind the front, Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Patches of shallow moisture are moving across the Caribbean Sea,
resulting in isolated to scattered weak showers. No deep
convection is present across the basin. Outside the Gale Warning
area, fresh to strong ENE winds and seas at 6-9 ft are found at
the central basin, including the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trade winds and
seas of 4-7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, strong ENE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia into Fri. These winds will pulse to and gale force late
evening to early morning hours. Fresh to strong easterly trades
will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into
Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The frontal system over the SE United States stretches into the
western waters of the Atlantic Ocean, supporting moderate to fresh
westerly winds north of 30N and between 75W and 80W. Seas are 4-5
ft in the waters described. Farther east, a surface trough is
along 53W, extending from 17N to 31N, and no deep convection is
seen near the trough axis. The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge near Bermuda and the surface trough sustain
moderate to NE winds within 300 nm on both sides of a line from
31N54 to Puerto Rico. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the
highest near 30N54W. In the remainder of the western Atlantic,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

To the east of the surface trough, moderate to fresh trades are
found north of 25N and east of 50W. Seas are 5-8 ft in the waters
described. Similar winds are noted south of 17N and east of 47W,
along with seas of 6-10 ft, with the highest occurring near
10N39W. A 1015 mb low pressure is located near 22N33W, allowing
for the fresh winds NE of the low.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered N of the area
will support fresh E winds and higher seas S of 25N tonight,
before weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish Tue. A weak
cold front will reach along 30N on Tue, then meander in the
vicinity into late week. SW winds may increase Thu night and Fri
for waters offshore NE Florida, ahead of another cold front.

$$
DELGADO
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