[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu.
Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Liberia near Monrovia and extends southwestward to near 04N16W.
An ITCZ continues from 04N16W across the Equator at 30W to near
Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is present near
and south of the trough from the Equator to 05N between the
Liberia coast and 16W. Similar conditions exist near and up to 300
nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from northern Florida
to near the Texas/Mexico border, sustaining fair weather for the
entire Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southeasterly
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the entire region.

For the forecast, a weak cold front is reaching the coast of
Texas this morning, and will slowly enter the northwestern and
north-central Gulf through this evening. Then it will become
stationary Tue and Wed. A second push of cold air will allow the
front to finally move across the Gulf on Thu, reaching from east
of New Orleans to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. On
Fri, winds could increase to gale force in the Veracruz area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

A fair trade-wind pattern continues for the entire basin. Outside
the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds and seas at 7 to
10 ft are found at the central basin, including the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong ENE winds will persist off the
coast of Colombia through at least Thu. These winds will pulse to
between near-gale and gale force late evening to early morning
hours, including this morning. Fresh to strong easterly trades
will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N48W to near 25N59W. Patchy showers are
occurring up to 40 nm along either side of this feature. An
upper-level low near 24N36W is triggering scattered moderate
convection north of 23N between 30W and 38W. Convergent trade
winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near Belem, Brazil and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in
easterly swell are present near the stationary front north of 25N
between 50W and 60W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to SE
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are found north of 25N between 60W and
the Georgia-Florida coast. South of 25N to 20N between 60W and the
Bahamas, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
evident. For the eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to E
trades with 5 to 8 ft seas exist north of 20N between the
northwest Africa coast and 50W, including the Canary Islands. At
the eastern Tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally
strong NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted from 04N to
15N between the central African coast and 47W. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front should
gradually dissipate by this evening. Strong high pressure over the
northwestern Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly winds
and higher seas across the waters south of 25N, including the
Bahamas, Great Bahama Bank, the approach to the Windward Passage
and the Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico through late this
afternoon. A modest cold front has moved off the Georgia and
Carolinas coast earlier this morning, and will track westward
through Tue, reaching from 31N62W to 24N70W by Tue evening.
Afterward, another cold front will move off northeastern Florida
on Wed.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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