[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near
the coast of Colombia through tonight. Seas will build to 10 to
12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve
slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N13W and
extends westward to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W
westward to 02N30W to the equator near 50W. No significant
convection is evident at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent buoy observations and data from a scatterometer satellite
indicated moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwest Gulf,
and fresh to strong easterly flow across the Straits of Florida.
Wave heights are reaching 5 to 7 ft in these areas. The winds and
seas are associated with a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and
1030 mb high pressure over the Carolinas and adjacent Atlantic
waters. No significant convection is evident at this time.

For the forecast, the 1030 mb high exiting into the western
Atlantic will sustain fresh to locally strong easterly winds
across the northwestern Gulf and Strait of Florida until later
this afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the
northwestern Gulf this evening, then stall and dissipate across
the northern Gulf by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate
easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through Thu. Winds
and seas at the western Gulf should build by Thu evening as a
strong cold front arrives.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the central Caribbean,
with 8 to 11 ft wave heights. Fresh to strong NE winds are also
evident across the Windward Passage, and south of the Dominican
Republic, with 6 to 8 ft wave hieghts. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft wave heights.

For the forecast, near-gale to gale trades at the south- central
Caribbean Sea will continue through the morning, then become
fresh to strong, possibly pulsing again to gale force tonight and
Mon evening. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south
of Cuba through the morning, and near the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola through midweek next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N62W to the central Bahamas.
Low pressure of 1012 mb is located near 28N44W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the low. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are S of
20N and west of 30W, with moderate to fresh winds E of 30W. Seas
are in the 8-12 ft range N of 25N between 30W and 55W, and 6-8 ft
elsewhere north of 20N and east of 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft are found
west of 60W, with Seas of 5-8 ft over the remainder of the
Atlantic discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate by
this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient will support fresh to
strong E winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the
Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage through Tue.
Southerly flow will increase offshore northeastern Florida tonight
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western
Atlantic by Mon night.

$$

Christensen
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