[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell:

The pressure gradient between the 1012 mb low pressure located
near 28N43W and 1042 mb high pressure over the northeastern
Atlantic continues to support a large area of fresh to strong
winds in the NE quadrant of the low center based on recent
satellite derived wind data. Gusty winds to gale force are still
probably occurring. Large swell generated by this system
continues to propagate across the Atlantic forecast waters, with
seas of 10 to 14 ft covering mainly the area N of 25N and E of
50W. This swell event is also affecting parts of the eastern
Atlantic basin. Winds and seas will gradually diminish this
evening as the low weakens further. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean,
near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Seas will build
to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will
improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone, then continues SW to near 05N20W. The ITCZ axis
extents from 05N20W to 02N30W to the equator at 50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 02N
between 14W and 23W. Similar convection is seen from 01N to 04W
between 30W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the Gulf waters from a 1031 mb
high pressure located over southern Georgia. This system is
producing fresh to locally strong easterly winds over the Straits
of Florida and the southern Gulf where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Higher
seas in the 8 to 9 ft range are noted in the Yucatan Channel per
altimeter data. The pressure gradient between the western periphery
of the high and lower pressures over Texas supports fresh to
locally strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf with
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate easterly winds
with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Satellite
pictures show abundant cloudiness, with possible showers across
much of the Gulf region.

For the forecast, a high pressure shifting eastward across the
Gulf States into the western Atlantic will sustain fresh to
locally strong easterly winds across the the southern Gulf until
this evening, and in the Straits of Florida through Sun. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are also expected over the northwestern
and west-central Gulf into Sun morning, ahead of a cold front
forecast to enter the northern Gulf Sun. The front will then
stall and dissipate by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate
easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf into late week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
NE to E winds in the lee of east-central Cuba, between Jamaica and
Cuba, and just W of Jamaica, and also over the south-central central
Caribbean, and south of Dominican Republic. Seas are near 8 ft in
the Windward Passage based on an altimeter pass. Seas of 8 to 12
ft are over the south-central Caribbean, and 8 to 9 ft N of 15N
and S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere seas are 6 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6
ft across the eastern and NW parts of the basin outside of the
Yucatan Channel and regional waters.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds flow are
moving westward across the area from time to time, resulting in
intervals of cloudiness and a few passing showers. The NE winds
across the Atlantic are transporting these patches of clouds
across the Greater Antilles into the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night
near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night, and possible
again Tue night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail
south of Cuba and near the Windward Passage into Sun night, and
across the north-central Caribbean through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
large swell propagating across the central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N65W to the northwest Bahamas. A band of mostly low clouds with
possible showers is related to the front. gentle to moderate winds
are observed W of the front and N of 27N. Higher wind speeds are
W of the front and S of 27N due to the pressure gradient between
the front and a 1031 mb high pressure situated over southern
Georgia. This is generating fresh to locally strong NE winds
across the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida where seas are in
the 5 to 7 ft range.

Farther E, a broad low pressure of 1012 mb persists over the central
Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are still occurring in the NE
quadrant of the low center. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details. A well defined swirl of low clouds is
noted on satellite imagery associated with this low. A surface
trough extends from the low center to near 17N50W. The eastern
Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure of 1042
mb located NE of the Azores. Mostly fresh trades are observed N
of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 23N, and near the coast of
Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the
stationary front should become a cold front again and reach from
31N60W to the central Bahamas by tonight. It will weaken afterward
and gradually dissipate by Sun night. A tight pressure gradient
will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas
across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of
the Windward passage tonight through Sun. Southerly flow will
increase offshore northeastern Florida by Sun night ahead of the
next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic Mon.

$$
GR
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