[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A tight surface pressure gradient, that exists between the
Bermuda-area high pressure center, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia, will cause easterly near-
gale to gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 9 feet
to 12 feet, off the coast of Colombia, for the next three days
or so.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at the website
https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued
by the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 02N15W and 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from
03N17W, to 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 01S35W,
crossing the Equator along 39W, to 01N40W, and to 01N47W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N
southward from 40W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 08N southward from 36W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the eastern coast of Florida near
26N80W, to 24N85W in the SE Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan
Channel, to Belize and the northern parts of Guatemala. Strong
northerly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 9
feet, are in the south central and the SW corner of the area.
Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Fresh
winds are from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 8 feet from the NE corner toward the SW corner. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Gulf
of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on
either side of the cold front.

A cold front extending from South Florida to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula will exit the basin early this afternoon. Winds and
seas associated with the passage of this front will gradually
improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow
will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in response to the next
cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front is
expected to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night,
and stall along the northern Gulf through Mon night. Fresh to
strong east winds will surge from the SW Atlantic through the
Straits of Florida and into the far SE Gulf Sat and Sat night
and diminish Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about a Gale-force Wind Warning that is near the coast of
Colombia, for the next 24 hours or so.

A cold front passes through 24N85W in the SE Gulf of Mexico,
through the Yucatan Channel, to Belize and the northern parts of
Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on
either side of the cold front.

A surface ridge extends southwestward, from a 1027 mb 33N59W
high pressure center, in order to maintain an easterly trade-
wind regime for the entire basin. Expect moderate to fresh wind
speeds in the E and NW Caribbean Sea. Expect strong to near gale-
force winds, and sea heights to be ranging from 8 feet to 12
feet, in parts of the SW and south central Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the
eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights have been ranging
from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere in the NW part of the area.

Strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean
Sea, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Minimal gale-
force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia
during the majority of the forecast period. A cold front
entering the the Yucatan Channel will move across the NW
Caribbean through early Fri, then stall and dissipate Sat night.
Strong NE to E winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage
and Lee of Cuba Fri night through Sun night.
Similar winds will resume in the Windward Passage Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N76W, to
the eastern coast of Florida near 26N80W, and into the SE Gulf
of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6
feet, and the wind speeds have been ranging from gentle to
moderate, between 70W and 80W. The sea heights have been 7 feet
and higher, and the wind speeds have been strong and faster,
from 31N northward between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 135 nm on either side of the front, and
elsewhere from 70W westward in the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 24N36W. A surface trough
curves away from the low pressure center, to 26N33W 24N32W
20N35W 19N42W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 21N to 27N between 40W and 45W. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W eastward. A dissipating
cold front is along 31N46W 22N50W 20N56W 22N64W. Isolated
moderate is from 19N to 24N between 47W and 67W, and elsewhere
from 18N northward between 50W and 70W. The sea heights have
been ranging from 7 feet to 11 feet, to the north of the line
that runs from 12N45W, to the Cabo Verde Islands, to the
northern coast of the Western Sahara, from 45W eastward. The sea
heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet from 25N
northward between the dissipating cold front and 60W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 70W eastward. Strong to near
gale-force winds are from 460 nm to 960 nm away from the 1012 mb
low pressure center in the northern semicircle, including from
24N northward from 20W eastward. Gentle wind speeds or slower
are in the area that is from 25N southward from 47W eastward.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds are from 25N southward between
47W and 60W, and elsewhere between 60W and 70W.

A cold front extending from 31N76W to South Florida will reach
from 31N71W to western Cuba tonight, and from 31N66W to eastern
Cuba by Fri night then stall and the southern part of the front
will begin to move northward. By Sun morning, a weakening
frontal boundary will extent from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas. A
tight pressure gradient across the area will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Great Bahama
Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward passage late Fri
night through Sun night. Southerly flow will increase E of NE
Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the western Atlantic on Mon.

$$
mt/gr
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