[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232248
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Three Gale Warnings are in effect across the Atlantic basin, that
includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast area near
31N35W and continues SW to 23N55W. The parent low pressure will
drift southward into the discussion waters, with gale-force winds
spreading west of the front through tonight, N of 30N and E of 43W.
Seas are forecast to peak near 19 ft in the area of gale- force
winds tonight. Winds will diminish below gale- force by early
afternoon Tue. However, seas will continue to propagate across the
forecast waters into late week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
winds to gale force in the south-central Caribbean into Wed
night. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the period of gale-
force winds. Addition gale conditions are likely to pulse starting
Fri.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong low pressure system will
develop over south Texas tonight and move NE across the southern
U.S. The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico late Tue afternoon through Thu. Strong to gale-force
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front over the NW and
north-central Gulf Tue and Tue night, and gale-force northwest
winds, with gusts to near storm-force are forecast over the NW
Gulf Tue into early on Tue night. Gale-force winds are also
likely offshore Veracruz Tue night into Wed in the wake of the
front. Winds and seas will then gradually subside across the basin
by Fri.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
on all the Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone, and continues SW to near 00N27W. The ITCZ extends
from 00N27W to 00N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to 07N between 10W and 21W, and from 00N
to 02N between 21W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida Everglades SW to just N of
the Yucatan Peninsula to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the front. Fresh NE winds are
occurring within about 180 nm NW of the front, along with seas of
5 to 7 ft. A ridge dominates the northern Gulf waters in the
wake of the front. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are
noted under the influence of the ridge with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate SW winds are over the far SE Gulf, ahead of the
front, with 3 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight before weakening as it
exits the basin. High pressure in the wake of the front will slide
eastward through late Tue as a low pressure system develops over
southern Texas, and quickly tracks northeastward across the
southern U.S while deepening. The low will drag a strong cold
front across the Gulf of Mexico late Tue afternoon through Thu.
Near gale- force to gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead
of the front over the NW and north- central Gulf Tue and Tue
night, and gale- force northwest winds are expected over the NW
Gulf Tue into early Tue night. Gale-force winds are expected
offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. Similar winds may
occur in a small area just northeast of Tampico early Wed. Winds
and sea conditions will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh southerly
return flow will begin to set-up in the far western Gulf starting
Sat in response to the next cold front that will be approaching
the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the
southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the
far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across most of the east and
central Caribbean with seas of 8 to 11 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are
noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean, with seas of 5
to 7 ft over the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. No
significant convection is occurring in the basin.


For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over most
of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Near gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Tue
night. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu,
enter the northwestern and north-central Caribbean Thu night
through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast to
east winds in the wake of the front will prevail in the northwest
and north-central Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic waters.

Late this afternoon, a cold front extends from 31N73W to near Fort
Lauderdale, Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds are on either
side of the front N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is ahead
of the front just N of the NW Bahamas. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are
occurring in this area.

Farther E, another cold front enters the forecast region near
31N35W, then continues SW to near 23N55W. Gale force winds are
occurring N of 30N and just W of the cold front to about 43W.
Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 27N.
Seas of 10 to 16 ft follow the front covering the waters N of 29N
between 38W and 50W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft elsewhere behind the
front. A 1028 mb high pressure located N of area near 33N53W is
on the wake of the front. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds
extend from Morocco through the Canary/Madeira Islands where seas
are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the tropical Atlantic waters to
the south, fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail
from 05N to 16N and west of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to
reach from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central
Cuba this evening, then from near 31N60W to 26N70W and stationary
to east-central Cuba by early Tue afternoon. The front will shift
east of the forecast waters on Wed. Fresh to strong northwest to
north winds behind the front will diminish by early Tue afternoon.
Fresh to strong southerly flow develops Wed over the northwest
waters ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast on Wed evening. This front is expected to
reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W
to 26N75W, to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N64W to
27N69W and becomes stationary to central Cuba by late Sat. A tight
gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east winds and
building seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net