[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Three Gale Warnings are in effect across the Atlantic basin, that
includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast area near
31N37W, then continues SW to 25N45W to 24N60W. The parent low
pressure will drift southward into the discussion waters, with
gale-force winds spreading west of the front. A recent ASCAT pass
already shows gale force winds behind the front N of 30N to about
43W. Seas are forecast to peak near 19 ft in the area of gale-
force winds late this afternoon. Winds will diminish below gale-
force by early afternoon on Tue. However, seas will continue to
propagate across the forecast waters through at least mid-week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
winds to gale force in the south-central Caribbean tonight through
Wed night. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the period of
gale-force winds. Fresh to strong trades will persist the remainder
of the work-week, with gale conditions possible at night through
Fri.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong low pressure system will
develop over east Texas Tue and move NE across the southern U.S.
The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of Mexico
late Tue afternoon through Thu. Strong to near gale-force southerly
winds, with frequent gusts to gale-force are expected ahead of
the front over the NW and north-central Gulf Tue and Tue night,
and gale-force northwest winds are forecast over the NW Gulf Tue
into early on Tue night. Gale-force winds are also possible
offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. Winds and seas
will then gradually subside across the basin by Fri.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
on all the Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone, and continues SW to near 00N26W. The ITCZ extends
from 00N26W to 00N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from the equator to 07N between 10W
and 21W, and from 00N to 02N between 21W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Fort Myers southwestward to 24N88W
and to 21N96W. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along the frontal boundary over the SE Gulf. Fresh NE winds
are occurring within about 180 nm NW of the front. Recent altimeter
data show seas of 6 to 8 ft within these winds. A ridge dominates
the northern Gulf waters in the wake of the front. Moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds are noted under the influence of the
ridge with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW winds are over
the far SE Gulf, ahead of the front, with 3 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening
before weakening as it exits the basin. Fresh north winds behind
the front will diminish today as high pressure in the wake of the
front shifts eastward across southeastern U.S. A strong cold
front is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico late Tue
afternoon through Thu. Please see the Special Features section for
more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across most of the east and
central Caribbean with seas of 8 to 11 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, based on a recent altimeter
pass. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted over the remainder of the
central Caribbean, with seas of 5 to 7 ft over the eastern part
of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are found in the Gulf of
Honduras with seas up to 5 or 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted over the NW Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered
passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Near gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at night
near the coast of Colombia through the week. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern
and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then
stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast winds in the wake of the
front will prevail in the northwest and north-central Caribbean
even after the front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic waters.

As of 1200 UTC, a cold front extends from near 31N78W to Fort Pierce,
Florida. A recent scatterometer pass clearly indicates the wind
shift associated with the front. Fresh to strong winds are on either
side of the front N of 27N. A band of showers and thunderstorms
is ahead of the front just N of the NW Bahamas. Seas of 7 to 10
ft are likely occurring in this area.

Farther E, another cold front enters the forecast region near
31N38W, then continues SW to near 24N50W to 24N60W. Gale force
winds are occurring N of 30N and just W of the cold front to about
43W. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these
wind speeds. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of
27N. Scatterometer data also suggest that a shear-line could be
analyzed on the next surface map W of 50W. Mainly patches of low
level clouds is related to the frontal boundary with some shower
activity ahead of the front N of 27N. Seas of 10 to 16 ft follow
the front covering the waters N of 29N between 38W and 50W, with
seas of 8 to 10 ft elsewhere behind the front. A 1029 mb high
pressure located N of area near 33N54W is on the wake of the
front. Another ridge is noted between the front and the Canary
Islands. Fresh to strong N to NE winds extend from Morocco through
the Canary/Madeira Islands where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range
based on a couple of altimeter passes. In the tropical Atlantic
waters to the south, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds
and 7-9 ft seas prevail from 05N to 16N and west of 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the first cold front is expected to
reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba
by early this evening, then from near 31N61W to 26N70W and
stationary to east-central Cuba by early on Tue. The front will
shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
expected behind the front along with building seas of up to 11 ft
through mid-week. Marine conditions are forecast to improve Thu
through Fri night.

$$
GR
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