[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends into the Atlantic through the
Liberia coast near Monrovia and to 05N15W and to near 02N25W.
Latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ begins at
05N29W and continues to 05N37W and southwestward to 03N43W and
to near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
trough from the Equator to 06N between 16W-25W. Similar
convection is within 60 north of the ITCZ between 44W-46W,
between 46W-50W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between
47W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge reaches westward from a 1023 mb high at
central Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh with locally
strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are over the NW and
west-central section of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh south-
southeast winds and seas of 4-7 ft are in the the Gulf of
Campeche per latest ASCAT data passes.

For the forecast, strong southerly return flow in the western
Gulf will diminish tonight, but develop across much of the Gulf
Tue night and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter
the western Gulf Wed night. The front will extend near Mobile
Bay to S of Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning. Fresh north winds
are likely to be expected behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating frontal boundary extends from the Virgin Islands to
near 14N72W. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central
Caribbean while gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere.
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western
Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas over the eastern and far NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating frontal boundary
will gradually dissipate into Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the
coast of Colombia into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning Tue evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 23N57W and to the Virgin
Islands. Fresh to strong winds are found both ahead of, and
behind the front north of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are also
found north of 25N and east of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-15 ft in NW-N swell range
over much of the waters north of 20N and west of 35W, with seas
of 8-12 ft north of 25N and east of about 35W. Elsewhere, seas
are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slowly shift eastward through Wed before becoming stationary and
weakening. Strong strong east of the front will shift east of
the area by tonight, with strong winds behind the front remaining
N of 28N and E of 68W. Seas of 13-16 ft will gradually subside
through Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre
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