[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front east and southeast of
Bermuda will sustain near-gale to gale force winds north of 27N
between 54W and 61W through early Mon morning. Seas are peaking at
15 to 16 ft in this area. Both winds and seas will gradually
subside starting Mon afternoon.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshores Waters
Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
Both products are issued by the National Hurricane Center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward into the Atlantic near
Monrovia, Liberia to 03N13W. An ITCZ continues westward from
03N13W through 03N25W to EQ38W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring north of the monsoon trough from 05N to 07N between the
Sierra Leone coast and 17W, and also up to 140 nm along either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
dominating the entire Gulf. Moderate to fresh with locally strong
S winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are present at the northwestern and
central-western Gulf. Moderate SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
exist at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong southerly return flow is expanding in
the western Gulf and this trend will continue through Mon, before
diminishing Mon night. Southerly winds will increase again,
reaching fresh across much of the Gulf Tue night and Wed ahead of
a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed
night. The front will extend from southeast Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico by Thu morning. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front stretches from eastern Hispaniola to near
the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. Scattered showers are seen over
the Windward Passage and near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica coast.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft are evident up to 350 nm northwest of the cold front, and over
the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds with 3 to 5
ft seas are found at the northwestern basin. Light to gentle
easterly winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of
basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will extend from the Virgin
Islands to 15N69W early Mon. Fresh to locally strong N winds west
of the front will persist today. Fresh to strong NE to E trade
winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast
of Colombia tonight through late this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a West Atlantic Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends from east of Bermuda across 31N62W through
eastern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present up to 160 nm east of the front, while patchy rain are
seen near the front. A surface trough reaches southwestward from
west of Bermuda across 31N72W to the northwest Bahamas. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north of 26N between
65W and 71W. The tail end of a stationary front along with a
surface trough are triggering scattered showers north of 26N
between 22W and 27W. A shear line curves westward from 25N26W
through 21N37W to 23N49W. Patchy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted along and up to 60 nm north of this line.
A developing shear line to the north is producing scattered
showers north of 25N between 27W and 43W. Divergent winds aloft is
enhancing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms near a
surface trough along the coast of French Guiana and northeastern
Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong westerly winds and
seas at 12 to 14 ft are present behind the cold front, north of
23N between 60W and 77W. Moderate to fresh NW winds with 7 to 12
ft seas are seen north of 23N between 77W and the Georgia/Florida
coast. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted
east of the cold front, north of 26N between 50W and 54W. At the
central Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ENE
winds and seas at 9 to 11 ft exist up to 250 nm north of the
shear line. Strong to near-gale NE winds with 12 to 14 ft seas are
seen near the stationary front north of 28N between 26W and 29W.
Moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present north of 18N between the northwest African coast and 26W,
including the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to ENE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are found farther south
from 05N to 21N between the central African coast and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N55W to the Virgin Islands early Mon before becoming stationary
and weakening. Gale-force S winds will continue east of the front
and north of 27N through tonight, while strong to near gale force
W winds cover a large area west of the front. Seas of 13 to 17 ft
are expected to continue behind the front into this evening
before gradually subsiding Mon night through Tue night. High
pressure will build over the Bahamas, spreading a ridge along
26/27N Mon night through Wed.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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