[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from
31N69W to the coast of Eastern Cuba near 21N76W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 31N66W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W.
Gale force winds continue in the NW Discussion Waters, N of 28N
and W of 76W. Buoy 41010, located 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral, FL, reported
sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 41 kt. Gales developed this
morning ahead of the front, north of 28N between 63W and 66W. Seas
currently peak at 15 ft on both sides of the front, and are
expected to build to 16 ft by Sunday. Seas 8 ft or greater are
north of a line extending from 31N57W to 23N67W to 23N74W to
31N81W. Conditions will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with
seas subsiding below 12 ft by the middle of next week. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the coast of Ilha de
Marajo, Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 05N between 10W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh N winds
prevail in the E Gulf, with moderate N winds in the central Gulf
and gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the eastern Gulf,
6-8 ft in the central Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf in
the wake of a cold front which moved SE of the area yesterday.
Strong winds across the eastern Gulf will gradually decrease today
into tonight. Seas in the eastern Gulf will diminish below 8 ft by
Sun morning. Strong S return flow will develop in the western
Gulf by Sun, with winds diminishing again by Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the coast of eastern Cuba near 20N78W to
the coast of Honduras near 16N84W. Fresh to strong N winds and 5-8
ft seas prevail north of the front, with 8-9 ft seas noted in the
Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, gentle trades
prevail with 4-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of
Colombia Sun through late next week. A cold front extending from
eastern Cuba to western Honduras will move SE through the weekend,
reaching from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean by early Sun. The
front will continue moving through the NE Caribbean into Mon,
while gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong N winds follow
the front. Strong N winds are expected to develop just E of
Nicaragua this evening through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a W
Atlantic Gale Warning and the associated cold front.

Conditions across the W Atlantic are described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section. E of 60W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by
subtropical high pressures centered north of the area, with
moderate to fresh trades noted across the basin. Seas are
generally 5-7 ft, except from 20N to 27N between 22W and 41W where
seas are 8-10 ft in ENE swell. A trough extends from 31N40W to
24N44W, accompanied by scattered showers.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale force winds will
prevail on both sides of the cold front through tonight. The
gales will continue E of the front through the remainder of the
weekend. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft behind the front.

$$
Mahoney
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