[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 15z, a cold front stretches
across the northwestern part of the basin from near Holly Beach,
Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. The front will continue
eastward and reach from Tampa Bay, Florida southwestward to near
Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning. The gradient between the front and
strong high pressure building in behind it will bring near gale
to gale force N winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning
through late Fri evening. Seas will build and reach 8 to 10 ft
by early Fri morning, then to a higher range of 10 to 14 ft
early Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will start to diminish late Fri
night into early Sat as the high pressure slides eastward allowing
for the gradient to relax.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis stretches across the coastal plains of
Liberia to near 05N09W. The ITCZ continues from 05N09W to
02N39W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed along the ITCZ south of 06N and east of 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
an upcoming Gale Warning.

A strong cold front stretches across the far northwest part of
the basin from near Holly Beach, Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas as of 15z. A prefrontal trough is analyzed ahead of the
front from the central Louisiana coast to 25N96W. Only
scattered, light showers are observed ahead of the prefrontal
trough north of 26N to 90W. Strong NW to N winds are located
behind the front, while fresh to fresh S to SW ahead of the
front north of 24N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in this area,
with up to 7 ft behind the prefrontal trough. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong N winds following the aforementioned
cold front will race SE and out of the basin Fri. Gales will
develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Fri, along with rough seas.
Conditions will improve from W to E Sat. High pressure will
quickly pass E across the basin this weekend, with strong
southerly return flow developing in the NW Gulf Sun. Winds will
again diminish Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extending from a 1024 mb high center east of
Bermuda continues to control the trade wind regime across the
entire basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds are located over the
south-central basin, with fresh to strong NE to E winds near and
offshore the coast of Colombia. Seas in this part of the basin
are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for slighter higher seas of 6
to 8 ft seas near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE
to E trade winds, with seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of
Colombia will continue into Fri night, then return Sun night
into the middle of next week. A cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel Fri night followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N
winds. By early Sun this front will stretch from Haiti to
Nicaragua. On Mon, the front will weaken to a shear line over the
NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N49W to near 23N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed ahead of the front north of 24N to 43W.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front
north of 27N reaching eastward to near 42W, while NE winds of
similar magnitude are found behind the front. To the west, a
weak cold front extends from 31N57W to 23N70W. No notable
convection is associated with this front.  Seas range from 5 to
7 ft, with the exception of 2 to 4 ft west of 70W.

Elsewhere, broad ridging extends across the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic from a 1034 mb high pressure center north of
the area. A recent scatterometer pass reveals mainly moderate to
fresh NE winds across the central and eastern Atlantic, with
areas to locally strong east of 30W. Seas range from 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move E and out of the area Fri. A stronger cold front will move
off NE Florida Fri morning then track east across the area
through the weekend. Ahead of the front, strong southerly winds
will increase to gales this weekend N of 28N. Strong winds are
also expected behind the front, with seas rising to 12 to 15 ft.

$$
Nepaul
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