[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 06N18W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues southwestward to 01N30W and to north of Brazil
at 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south
of the trough from the coast of Liberia west to near 16W. Similar
activity is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-38W,
and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N86W
continues to be the main feature influencing the wind and weather
regime across the Gulf. A surface trough is over the central Bay
of Campeche. No convection is occurring with this as it is
surrounded by dry and stable atmospheric conditions. The gradient
associated to the high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds in the the eastern Bay of Campeche and
along the northwest side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds are over the NW Gulf per an
overnight ASCAT data pass and recent buoy observations from that
part of the Gulf. Seas remain rather low there, in the 2-3 ft
range. Slightly lower seas of 1-2 ft are elsewhere across the Gulf
as seen in a recent altimeter data pass, and as reported by buoy
observations.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift toward the western
Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas by Fri
morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the
front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the
front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas
are possible off Veracruz behind the front Fri into early Fri
night, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and
seas will diminish from west to east into Sat as the front moves
southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return
flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along
with building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather light pressure gradient is maintaining generally gentle
to moderate northeast to east trade winds over the basin as
noted in overnight scatterometer data passes. Slightly higher
northeast to east winds of moderate to fresh speeds are over the
far south-central and southwestern Caribbean areas. Seas of
4-5 ft are over the south-central and eastern basin, while lower
seas of 2-4 ft are over the remainder of the basin. Isolated
showers are confined to the far southwestern Caribbean waters
south of about 12N and west of 77W to inland southern Costa Rica
and also northern and central Panama.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most the basin through tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong
winds are expected at the south-central Caribbean tonight
through Fri night as the Bermuda High strengthens a little. A cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night, followed by
fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from
Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from north-central Atlantic southwestward to
31N53W and to near 21N65W. The southern section of the this front
is weakening. Fresh to strong southwest winds are N of 30N and
east of the front to near 48W, with possible seas of 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are present N of 24N
and east of the front to 45W, with seas of 5-7 ft. Convergent
southerly flow is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 180 nm east of the front north of 27N.
Convergent trades attributed to a fresh trade wind surge are
resulting in scattered moderate to isolated convection northeast
of French Guiana from 04N to 09N between 42W-51W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 31N77W, through the NW and central Bahamas
and to near 22N76W. No significant convection is noted with the
trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from the southeastern
Bahamas southward across the central Dominican Republic. Isolated
showers are possible in the vicinity of this trough. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Otherwise, the surface ridge related to the Azores high is
sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of 27N
between 25W and 60W. To the west, the gradient associated to the
Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6
ft due to an easterly swell north of 20N and west of 60W. Farther
southeast from 03N to 27N, moderate to fresh northeast east trade
winds, with seas in the range of 7-10 ft due to primarily a
northeast to east swell are present between the Africa coast and
45W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast trade winds and seas of
5-7 ft are from 06N to 27N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle south to southwest winds, with seas of 3-5 ft due
to a southerly swell pretty much continue over the remainder of
the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 28N55W to 22N64W early this evening and continue
to weaken as it shifts E of the area late Thu. High pressure will
follow in behind the front. A strong cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward
across the forecast waters, expect increasing winds and building
seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the
front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach minimal
gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun.
Seas of 12-15 ft are expected with the strongest winds NE of the
Bahamas.

$$
Aguirre
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