[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast
of Sierra Leone and extends about 60 nm offshore to 07N14W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N14W southwestward to 01N30W, along 01N to
near 45W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon
trough or ITCZ at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends south-southwest from a 1022 mb high over
the SE U.S. states. Both buoy observations and ASCAT data passes
indicate that winds across a majority of the basin are of light
to gentle speeds and in an anticyclonic fashion around the
ridge. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are within the Straits
of Florida, and moderate E winds are likely east of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Buoy observations are reporting relatively low seas
in the range of 1-3 ft, with the exception of slightly higher
seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through Thu morning, at which time a strong cold front is
forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly
return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow the front, which is forecast
to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by
early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off
Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to strong northerly
winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the
front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the Caribbean sea has weakened,
allowing for gentle to moderate breezes across the basin.
Additionally, an upper-level ridge over the central Caribbean
sea is helping maintain dry and tranquil conditions. The
exception is offshore NE Colombia, where locally fresh winds and
5 ft seas were recently recorded. Seas east of 70W are 3 to 5
ft, noted in recent buoy and altimeter data, while 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail west of 70W.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most of the basin through Wed as the high pressure weakens
and shifts eastward. Winds will increase to between moderate and
fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed
through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of
Mexico.  Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW to N winds will
follow a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late
Fri. This front will reach from Hispaniola to the southwestern
Caribbean by Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to the southern Bahamas near
21N70W. Convergent southerly flow is allowing for a line of
thunderstorms about 180 nm ahead of the front north of 28N,
while scattered showers and thunderstorms remain ahead of the
boundary south of 28N to the Caribbean Islands. A recent
scatterometer pass captured strong to near gale force S-SW winds
within the area of thunderstorms north of 25N. Fresh NW winds
are behind the cold front, north of 29N and east of 68W, where
seas are 6 to 8 ft. High pressure filling in behind the front is
allowing for tranquil conditions and gentle anticyclonic flow
for the remainder of the western Atlantic with 2 to 4 ft seas.

The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of  1033 mb
high pressure centered SE of the Azores Islands, extending a
ridge to the northern Lesser Antilles. The pressure gradient
between this high and lower pressures in the deeper tropics
supports moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N and east of
60W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Locally strong trade winds were
captured by an earlier scatterometer pass from 15N to 20N
between 41W and 48W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are
noted north of 25N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
29N55W to 21N67W by Wed morning. A reinforcing cold front will
move into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, then
become stationary and weaken from 27N55W to 20N65W by Thu
morning and dissipate by Thu night. A strong cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. Winds ahead of
the front may briefly gust to gale-force N of 29N on Fri, while
strong W to NW winds will follow the front that is forecast to
reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat and from
near 31N65W to 25N68W and to the Dominican Republic by late Sat
night. Expect building seas of 13 or 14 ft first ahead of the
front late Sat into Sun, then behind the front on Sun.

$$
Mora
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