[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Freetown, Sierra Leone
then passes through a 1012 mb low near 02N18W to 01N21W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near these features from the Equator
to 07N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 21W. An ITCZ
continues from 01N21W through 02N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Louisiana coast near
Lake Charles to southwest of New Orleans near 28N93W, then
continues as a stationary front to just south of Brownsville,
Texas. A pre-frontal trough runs southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to the central Gulf. Scattered showers are present near
and behind the fronts over the northwestern Gulf, and also near
the trough across the northeastern Gulf. A surface trough is
triggering isolated thunderstorms at the west-central Gulf.
Another surface trough is causing similar conditions at the
eastern Gulf of Campeche. Moderate N to NE winds with 3 to 4 ft
seas are found over the northwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold/stationary front will stall over the
northern and eastern Gulf Mon through early Tue, and then lift
northeastward as a warm front late Tue through Wed night. Light
to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward through
Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off
the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas
coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds and
building seas will follow the front over the northwestern Gulf
Thu night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force
and rough seas are possible off Veracruz Fri behind the front,
with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas
will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb Bermuda High continues to sustain a easterly trade-wind
pattern across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are evident at the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds with 4 to 5 ft seas
are seen over the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate ENE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will prolong moderate to fresh
winds across the eastern and central Caribbean tonight, with
locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian
coast. Winds will diminish to between gentle and moderate over
most of the basin Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens and
shifts eastward. Winds will increase again, reaching moderate to
fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through
late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking
ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front moving into the
northwestern Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N49W to well north of Puerto Rico at 25N66W, then
continues westward as a stationary front across the central
Bahamas to near northwestern Cuba. Patchy showers are occurring
near and up to 40 nm north of this boundary east of 71W. West of
71W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near
and up to 100 nm north of the stationary front, including the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida Straits. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted farther east of the cold front north of
26N between 46W and 51W. A surface trough is causing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern coast of
Hispaniola. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are found
near the cold front, north of 29N between 49W and 57W. Otherwise,
the surface ridge associated with the Azores and Bermuda Highs is
sustaining gentle to moderate easterly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas
in northerly swell north of 27N between the northwest African
coast and 65W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are present north of 20N between 65W and the Florida/Georgia
coast. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas
at 6 to 9 ft are evident from 03N to 27N between the central
African coast and the Lesser Antilles/65W. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will shift east of 55W
Mon morning, while the stationary portion dissipates. High
pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds into Mon night mainly south of 22N. Another cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken
and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed,
merge with the previous front, and then stall and dissipate from
31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing
winds and waves will accompany a strong cold front that will move
off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. The front will reach
from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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